The destination of the votes obtained by Franco Parisi in the second round is a key factor, according to the executive.
One of the elements that surprised the market was the high vote obtained by Franco Parisi. Precisely the destination of the votes obtained by the standard-bearer of the People’s Party is a factor that will influence the second presidential round between José Antonio Kast and Gabriel Boric.
“What happened yesterday with Parisi was surprising. Although in our team we had analyzed how strong he was in the polls, we never imagined that he would surpass Yasna Provoste and Sebastián Sichel”, comments the head of equity research at Credicorp Capital, Carolina Ratto.
– How does the market see this situation?
– Parisi’s votes will be decisive for the second round. And what happens is that the voters of Parisi are difficult to define, although I tend to think that they are center-right. Still, we don’t know how many votes will go to Kast or Boric.
– Will Kast have to sit down to negotiate with Parisi or is it enough for him to have the support of Chile Podemos Más?
– You have to see what Parisi says about it. But beyond that, what I think is that Kast is going to try to moderate his speech more because he has to capitalize on a significant part of the center in order to win the election. Somehow he has room for maneuver to moderate his speech quite a bit.
What we want to see in the market is what will be the attitude of Parisi in the second round and that is difficult to know.
– In economic matters, what aspects could Kast negotiate with Sichel at the programmatic level?
– Kast’s program was made without thinking that he would have a real chance of going to a second round, but rather to make a difference with the rest of the candidates.
In economic matters there are many issues to review, for example, the energy issue that came out in the last debate and pensions, where the Kast and Sichel programs are not so divergent. While the tax issue and downsizing the State is ambitious and should be reviewed.
– In pensions, is there a point of greater convergence between both candidates?
– On the issue of pensions, there is more convergence on issues of increased contributions and the Universal Basic Pension, in addition that neither seeks to eliminate the current pension system.
– What will be the main economic challenge of Boric or Kast post second round?
– Social stability is needed to implement any economic measure. The challenge is to meet people’s expectations and deal with new episodes of social crisis.
How the next President handles job creation and the transition from the IFE term to 2022 will be relevant to the economy.