Many options have been considered and much futurology has been made about how and when the current coronavirus pandemic will come to an end, and whether the appearance of new variants of the virus will have an end point.
Scientific studies They had already predicted that, as time passes, SARS-CoV-2 will become endemic in the world population.
Now, the prestigious scientist from the University of Oxford, Sarah Gilbert, considered that the disease caused by the new coronavirus could over time resemble a common cold, since the viruses tend to weaken as they spread through the population.
According to the researcher who developed the AstraZeneca vaccine, “it is usually seen that viruses become less virulent as they circulate more easily and there is no reason to think that there will be a more virulent version of SARS-CoV-2.”
During a Royal Society of Medicine webinar, Gilbert said that the population will develop immunity like other seasonal coronaviruses, which cause colds. “Eventually, SARS-CoV-2 will be one of those,” he said.
John Bell, a prestigious professor of medicine at the University of Oxford, spoke in the same vein yesterday. Speaking to Times Radio, Bell said Britain will have gotten over “the worst” by next spring and things “should be fine” once winter is over.
“If you look at the current trajectory of the pandemic, we are much better than six months ago. So the pressure on the NHS (British Public Healthcare) has largely abated. If you look at the deaths from COVID, they tend to be in very old people, and it is not entirely clear that COVID was the cause of all those deaths, “added Bell, a Canadian-born immunologist and geneticist.
“So I think the worst is over,” insisted Bell, who considered it important not to feel “panic” about the current cases because once winter is over, things “will be fine.” According to the latest official figures, the United Kingdom yesterday registered another 34,460 infections and reported 166 new deaths.
In relation to the spread of COVID-19 among schoolchildren, the expert Neil Ferguson, from Imperial College London, told the media today that the country is not registering a rapid increase in cases associated with the beginning of the educational cycle.
“We are seeing increases in infections in school-age children, but it has not spread to the general population,” Ferguson said, while admitting that the challenge will come with the onset of fall and winter as people will gather indoor.
According a demographic analysis conducted by the University of Pennsylvania and published in the journal Science Advance, the current coronavirus could behave like other coronaviruses that cause the common cold, especially affecting young children who have not yet been vaccinated or exposed to the pathogen.
According to data from a numerical model, in the United States, there is “growing evidence suggesting an apparently inevitable resurgence of the disease into endemism in the foreseeable future.”
In this sense, the first conclusions suggest that, taking into account that the severity of COVID-19 is generally lower among children, the global burden of this disease is expected to decrease.
For one of those responsible for the work, Ottar Bjornstad, from the University of Pennsylvania, “after the SARS-CoV-2 infection, a clear trend to severity and mortality with age has been observed”
Following this behavior, the results of the sequenced model suggest “that the risk of infection will probably shift to younger children as the adult community becomes immunized, either through vaccination or exposure to the virus.”
Bjornstad argued, in the recitals explaining the study, that such changes were seen in other coronaviruses and flu viruses as they emerged and then became endemic.