Deloitte-Cadem’s September measurement confirms that the representatives of the private world assume an economic recovery in the country that is heterogeneous among the productive sectors.
A brake on the expectations of businessmen about the recovery of the economy registered the index prepared by Deloitte-Cadem. In September, the index fell almost four points compared to August, showing that the enthusiasm of the private world fell to 57.1 points, after that for three consecutive periods its prospects had been improving.
“Indeed, business opinion stopped improving, although it is still in the field where optimistic perceptions dominate,” acknowledges the CEO and managing partner of Deloitte Chile, Ricardo Briggs.
According to his analysis of the responses provided by the panel made up of 40 directors and executives of union entities and private companies, the political uncertainty associated with the presidential elections “plays a role” in this deterioration.
An “additional” installment provides the higher inflation they assume, for which he mentions that the rhythm of interest rate adjustments made by the Central Bank “will be key”. Yesterday it raised it 125 basis points to 2.75%.
Given the fact that several companies listed on the local stock market are opting to distribute dividends -which has been interpreted as a sign of low interest on the part of firms to initiate new investments-, Briggs says that this is “in line with this context of greater political and economic uncertainty ”.
According to the online consultation, 40% of the representatives of private firms believe that the country in the next three months will resume a “more normal operation” in face-to-face work and the reopening of shops and schools.
Regarding employment, the bets on the ability to recover what was lost are divided equally: 50% believe that job creation will worsen and 50% that they will improve.
Regarding the level of recovery, the survey confirms that it will occur in a heterogeneous way where some sectors will grow while others will decline, which in economic jargon is called with a letter K.
In parallel, the view of the public showed a rebound in the index from the 54.1 points registered in August to 51.8 points.
For Brigg this is associated “with the possibility of an additional withdrawal of pension funds.” This, together with the additional money they receive through the Emergency Family Income (IFE) “have had a favorable effect” on improving household liquidity.
In fact, in the six-month expectations of those over 18 years of age, the calibration on an economic improvement is greater when the perspective is on the personal and family situation. There, 78% consider that it will improve, advancing two points compared to August.
On the other hand, about the future performance of the country’s economy, 55% have a positive vision, showing a decline of nine points. Another element is that “the unemployment rate has fallen in recent months”, which also helps put public opinion on “favorable ground”.