Energy prices, which are rising and worrying the markets, should experience a moderation “by the end of the first quarter of 2022“, said Gita Gopinath, chief economist of the International Monetary Fund in an interview with AFP.
“For now, although in the short term, (…) during the few winter months, energy prices will be high, we expect them to come back down by the end of the first quarter of next year and during the second trimester“she said.
The risk: having a harsh winter
However, she acknowledged that “the significant risk“was to have a harsh winter which would then lead to”much larger blackouts and blackouts that would have a much bigger effect on the world“.
“The worst-case scenario would be to have a particularly harsh winter in the northern hemisphere with soaring demand for energy. And at the same time, we would not have solved the problem of disruption of production chains“, she added.
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However, Gita Gopinath does not expect a crisis such as that of the 1970s because “overall, the world is much less dependent on energy“. And “it would take a much larger increase in gas prices, for example, for (…) this to lead to (…) stagflation“, that is to say very high inflation and stagnant growth.
Markets are concerned about rising energy prices affecting the whole world.