Photo by the Roscongress Foundation
The race for investments in renewable energy sources and a demonstrative disregard for, or even a boycott of, renewable sources – coal, oil and gas – will provoke a new energy crisis in the not too distant future. This was announced at the international forum “Russian Energy Week” (REW) at the session “Russian fuel and energy complex in the conditions of energy transition” by the Deputy Minister of Energy of the Russian Federation Pavel Sorokin.
AT THE THRESHOLD OF A PRICE STORM
“In five to seven years, we may already see much more serious consequences of this approach of reducing investments in the fuel and energy crisis. Because only a few countries are able to quickly increase production. Free capacity in the world is a maximum of 3-4 million barrels per day. If production starts to fail somewhere, it will be difficult to compensate, ”the Deputy Minister noted.
Pavel Sorokin believes that the current surge in oil prices is the result of a decline in investment in the industry in recent years. Moreover, this is a very short-term leap. The official believes it is necessary to follow a reasonable approach and not rush to extremes when the world community stops investing in traditional energy sectors. So, today, reserves on the balance sheet of international companies are decreasing and a minimum of funds are invested in geological exploration.
Note that the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its latest report notes that world energy markets are on the verge of even greater price volatility in the coming years, a shortage of raw materials is possible in all industries and regions of the world. According to the IEA, investments in oil and gas production fell after the crises of 2014 and 2020, and investments in new types of energy are not yet sufficient to meet the growing needs of the planet.
WILL THE GREEN COURSE SAVE?
“Everything that has happened in the EU now is not a crisis of alternative energy sources, but, first of all, certain difficulties and mistakes that occurred at the stage of energy transition. Why did it happen? – says Tatyana Zavyalova, Senior Vice President for ESG at Sberbank. – The first is a faster recovery of the EU economy after the crisis and competition for energy, the second is a decrease in the production of renewable energy sources due to a decrease in wind generation, and the third is record low gas reserves in the territory due to the fact that the EU abandoned long-term contracts earlier than it should. These are the three reasons why the rally took place. “
The expert believes that now the EU is analyzing what happened and will take action. A plan with a set, steps and solutions related to the current crisis should be released this week. The Green Deal will continue. But there is a high probability that the European Union will form a single gas reserve, which will make it possible to inject gas into the energy balance in unforeseen situations. In addition, according to the expert, the current situation provides opportunities for nuclear energy.
We add that RusHydro is currently studying methane emissions at nine of its reservoirs.
“If you look at the world, the countries that have the lowest CO2 emissions are those that have relied on traditional hydropower. These are Norway, Brazil, USA, Canada. Their development of the hydro potential is colossal, – summarizes Roman Berdnikov, member of the board, first deputy general director of RusHydro. – If in Russia the development of the hydro potential is only 22%, then, for example, in China – 39%, the USA – 78%. On average around the world – 52%, Europe – more than 70% ”.