When one wants, two often fight. But interview by Roberto Campos Neto Roda Viva showed that Lula will have difficulties in dragging the head of the Central Bank to the center of the ring. The President of the Republic was left with two alternatives. In a simpler one, Lula beats the wind. In another, more laborious, Lula presents his government’s plans to deliver three goods that he promised in the electoral campaign: tranquility, predictability and prosperity. None of this will be achieved without concrete results in the economy.
An impasse has been reached. We know what Lula doesn’t like. It remains to be seen what Lula wants. He considers the BC’s autonomy “a nonsense”. But the “nonsense” is the result of a decision by Congress. Rodrigo Pacheco and Arthur Lira, presidents of the Senate and the Chamber, inform that the chance of the law being modified is zero. Either Lula tests his muscle in the Legislature or changes the subject. Do you think the goal of inflation should rise from the current 3.25% to 4.5%. The National Monetary Council is in charge of this matter. In it, the government has a majority. The board meets this Thursday. Either Lula triggers his majority or turns the page.
Official inflation closed the month of January at 5.77% accumulated in 12 months. This is above the ceiling of the target, which is 4.75%, considering the tolerance interval of 1.5 percentage points. The BC’s obligation is to pursue the achievement of the target. Your tool is the interest rate. Lula thinks that the annual Selic rate of 13.75% is exorbitant. The fans of Flamengo and Corinthians agree. The question is: how to download? Working in harmony, BC and government can get somewhere. In disharmony, they will reach turmoil.
With a mandate until the end of 2024, Campos Neto said he is not considering resigning. He said he recognizes the legitimacy of Lula’s election. He offered to explain to Congress as many times as necessary. And he was open to dialogue with the president. Lula complains that the BC president is a Bolsonarist. O Bolsonarism does not ennoble him. On the contrary. But the electoral preference ndid not prevent Campos Neto from raising interest rates in the final stretch of the election, in response to the captain’s fiscal populism.
Dealing with his third presidential term, Lula knows like few others that, in a presidential regime, the face of the sovereign will always be the face of the crisis. He returned to the throne promising the best government in history. If he doesn’t deliver the goods, his opinion of Campos Neto will matter very little. Perhaps he should bring a batch of projects to the window and a look of tranquility on his face.