More than 100 days that invite you to get excited

“With the data from last Thursday, the average number of daily cases taking the last seven days was 3,342 and the death rate was 130”, he explained, before noting that “during all this year such low values ​​had not been registered; Thursday’s figure had not been registered since July 2020 and with the crucial difference that at that time the curve was rising ”.

The decrease in contagions affects hospitalizations and the deceased. “In the ICUs, for example, we are at values ​​that we did not have since August 2020, that is, since before the ‘peak’ of the first wave,” said Retamar.

Buenos Aires province

In this sense, the Ministry of Health of the Province of Buenos Aires reported this week that 51 Buenos Aires municipalities have not reported deaths from coronavirus since last July 31, and that more than half of the hospitals and sanatoriums do not admit patients due to covid -19 for 15 days and in many of them this has not happened for a month.

“Specifically, today we have a 21 percent hospital occupancy due to covid-19 and deaths have been falling for 11 weeks, representing a fall of 97 percent from the peak of 2021 that was the last week of May”, the Buenos Aires Minister of Health specified on Tuesday, Nicolas Kreplak.

Meanwhile, the Ministry of Health of the Nation reported last Friday that “for the first time since the beginning of the pandemic, the Virology Laboratory of the Hospital Nacional Posadas did not detect any new case of covid-19 on Thursday, as a result of a sustained drop in the number of samples processed during September and a decrease in the positivity of cases ”.

“Faced with this scenario of a decrease in cases and also a decrease in positivity (confirmed on tests carried out), it would be an excellent moment to increase the policy of tracking and isolation; However, this strategy depends a lot on the person really saying their list of close contacts, knowing that they are going to be isolated ”, described the physicist and CONICET researcher Jorge Aliaga.

Aliaga, former dean of the Faculty of Exact Sciences of the University of Buenos Aires and current secretary of Institutional Planning and Evaluation of the National University of Hurlingham, said then that “A perhaps more effective strategy today would be to do as many rapid tests as possible to detect cases and isolate them, even in close contacts without symptoms.”

The decrease in cases, hospitalizations and deaths from covid-19 is mainly the result of the advancement of the vaccination plan in Argentina, which “has already reached 63 percent of the total population with at least one dose and 39 percent with complete schedules. ”, Said biochemist and data analyst Santiago Olszevicki based on official information. “The groups with the highest mortality are vaccinated over 90 percent with one dose and 80 percent with both,” he said.

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The Delta variant, in the sights

The importance of complete vaccination schedules against the potential entry of the delta variant was highlighted by specialists from all over the world in recent months, since the experiences of countries such as Great Britain and Israel have shown that although vaccines do not prevent the transmission of this strain does decrease serious cases and deaths.

“Delta has predominated in Israel for almost three months. In this period it had a record of cases and had half the daily deaths than in the last wave. Currently, with more than 80 percent of adults vaccinated, it has 661 serious patients due to covid: 430 are unvaccinated ”, stated the data analyst Santiago Olszevicki.

In the latest Surveillance Bulletin of the SARS-CoV-2 variants of the Ministry of Health, it was reported that until August 30, 311 laboratory-confirmed cases of delta variant had been identified in the country, of which “283 correspond to cases imported or related to the import (224 to international travelers and 59 to people related to said travelers – close contacts or contacts of their contacts) and 15 cases in which the relationship with the import could not be established ”.

The bulletin reported that of these 15, three were contacts identified through the epidemiological investigation of the cases and thirteen correspond to a cluster of related cases in which their origin is under investigation.

This implies that so far there is no evidence of community circulation of Delta in the country, which is determined from systematic detection over time and carries the risk that the population will acquire it in the community.

There is also no community circulation of the Mu variant (identified for the first time in Colombia), recently classified as “of interest” by the World Health Organization (WHO).

Finally, despite the fact that the circulation of the coronavirus is in decline, the infectious disease doctor Elena Obieta indicated this week that “As long as there is community circulation of viruses, any modification such as large openings, the return to full presence, or the trips of graduates to Bariloche, can cause super disseminating events and when this happens new variants may appear”.

“This is why we must insist and continue with care, because this means that there are fewer cases and therefore the virus mutates less; in parallel it is necessary to continue with the vaccination ”, concluded Obieta.

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