The rebound observed in recent days in the number of Covid-19 cases detected in Belgium is confirmed: while we had fallen back under the 1900 daily cases on October 9, the evolution was completely reversed, and the average is rapidly climbing again to reach now 2114 contaminations per day on average. But if we observe the figures not yet consolidated (and therefore not included in the average), we see that 3872 cases have already been detected this Monday, October 11. It is true that the number of tests is always more important on Monday, but it is still the highest figure since May 3, more than 5 months ago, when our vaccination coverage was still quite low.
If instead of considering the figures from D-10 to D-4 as Sciensano does to communicate on the evolution of cases, we consider the figures from D-9 to D-3, and therefore from October 5 to 11, it can be seen that the current increase in contamination is at least 23,5% over a week across the country, and nearly 40% in Flanders.
In two provinces (Limbourg and East Flanders), the increase in cases is almost 50% per week.
This rapid rise is not yet felt in the number of admissions, but it usually takes 8 days for the increase in contamination to translate into hospitalizations. We will therefore see if the significant vaccination coverage in our country (especially in Flanders, more affected by this increase) makes it possible to attenuate the effects in severe cases, or if the number of people not vaccinated, and therefore vulnerable to the delta variant, remains insufficient to absorb the consequences of resuming social activities.
We should also point out that in province of Antwerp, where the increase has been visible for ten days, the number of admissions has jumped 37% in one week. But it is also true that it is in this province that we find the Flemish municipalities with the lowest vaccination rate (68% in Antwerp, i.e. below the Walloon average).
We note, however, that the number of people hospitalized with Covid has also reached a figure more reached for 4 months, with 779 patients positive. This may seem paradoxical, since admissions are not increasing yet, but it should be remembered that Sciensano includes in this figure patients hospitalized for a reason other than the Covid, and tested positive in hospital: if the virus circulates again more, it is logical that a greater part of these patients are also detected as infected.
Consolidated figures according to the Sciensano table
Cases detected¹ : between 4/10 and 10/10, 2114 new coronavirus infections were detected on average every day. This is an increase of 12% from the previous week.
Tests : between 4/10 and 10/10, an average of 44.565 tests were performed daily, a total up 0% from the previous week.
Admissions : they amount on average to 57,3 between 7/10 and 13/10. This is a decrease of 3% compared to the previous week.
Hospitalized people² : 779 patients are currently hospitalized in connection with Covid-19, including 201 patients treated in intensive care.
Positivity rate³ : based on the test results obtained between 4/10 and 10/10, it is 5,1%, up 0.4% from last week.
Reproduction rate : calculated on the basis of changes in admissions, the Rt of the coronavirus today stands at 1,0. When it is greater than 1, it means that the transmission of the virus is accelerating.
Death : between 4/10 and 10/10, 9 people have died from the virus on average. Since the start of the epidemic, 25,726 people have died from the coronavirus.
¹ The cases detected are the number of patients for whom a positive test has confirmed the presence of the virus. The date that is considered is the date of the diagnosis, not the test result. Data is considered consolidated after 4 days. The number of cases may depend in part on the testing strategy: if we test more systematically, we also detect more cases.
² Hospitalized patients include patients already hospitalized for another reason, and who have tested positive
³ The positivity rate is the number of positive tests compared to the number of tests performed. The same person can be tested several times. It also depends on the testing strategy: if we do not test enough, the positivity rate will be higher.