The possibility that the Consumer Price Index will once again be above 6% makes Martín Guzmán nervous, in the midst of the Government’s internal ones.
Last month, it was the Minister of the Economy, Martín Guzmán, who, three days before the Indec reported the inflation rate of 6.7% for March, was in charge of announcing that this record “was going to be very high.”
This time it was the turn of his Productive Development counterpart, Matías Kulfas, who anticipated that “April’s inflation is not good. We do not expect a pronounced decline.”
The numbers are disparate, but all very high. “If on Thursday the INDEC says that inflation was 5.9%, it is the same as 6.1%, but it does not sound the same,” a seasoned official from the Treasury Palace, who knows about the “wars against inflation,” told PROFIL ” that Argentina has endured.
“’Six-odd’ does not seem to be a drop compared to the 6.7% in March, instead, a ‘five-something’ already seems less”, according to the opinion of this official.
From the private sector, the panorama of estimates is a bit disparate. From the consulting firm led by the economist Orlando Ferreres, they estimated that the rise in retail prices would have reached 6.3% in April, with a new and strong impact on food, of 8%, which was what drove raise it.
For its part, the Fundación Progreso y Libertad (FpyL) estimated the increase in April at 6.1%, “a month that normally has less variation than March, so it would not be correct to speak of a slowdown, since we continue in percentages. very tall”.
The FpyL pointed out that the item “Food and non-alcoholic beverages” grew again above 7% “for the second consecutive month”, in this case 7.1%. In addition, the “Health” sector was boosted by the 6% increase in prepaid and ended up rising 6.8%.
The low hypothesis. On the other hand, the economist Marina Dal Poggetto stressed that from her consultant “we are managing 5.7% inflation for April, which is one point less than March.”
Although the survey showed that, in the last two months, “we were somewhat below the Indec, it is likely that now we are a little above,” said the analyst at the consulting firm Eco.Go, in radio statements.
Dal Poggetto warned that “Argentina is changing its inflationary regime. What you are seeing is shorter contracts.” President Alberto Fernández “coordinated the rise in prices, he is also coordinating the rise in parities and then everything is shortened.”
But, beyond the difference between the 5.7% of Dal Poggetto and the 6.3% of Orlando Ferreres, all point to the fact that “core inflation” is that which is not affected by the variation in seasonal prices or products and regulated goods, is around 6%
That is why Dal Poggetto pointed out that “there should be no risk of hyperinflation with soybean prices at these levels, but sometimes we take care.”
Opponent darts. From the opposition, the former Minister of Economy, Alfonso Prat Gay, warned that “in March the education category rose a lot, because the school fees were readjusted, but (the problem is that) every month there is something that has to go up a lot to get in line with the rest, and this is a race that does not end”.
Prat Gay also criticized the actions of the Secretary of Commerce, affirming that its head, Roberto Feletti, “achieved the opposite effect” of lowering food prices, and pointed to the excess of phrases that came from the Government, such as ” the war against inflation, or send us to group therapy”.
“There are political and economic problems” that generate this high level of price increases. Among politicians, he pointed out that “when the Central Bank is given over to political decisions, like “the silver plan”, that is not good. That is paid for”, said the former president of that entity during the government of Eduardo Duhalde and Néstor Kirchner.
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