On the day that the President and Prime Minister of Finland announced that they are officially in favor of joining NATO, the TSF heard two experts to anticipate the scenarios and the effects that these entries can provoke. There are two points that unite them – Russia is likely to increase its military strength along the border it has with Finland – and they rule out the use of nuclear weapons by Moscow. Rather, they anticipate a relocation to the border with Finland.
The former director of the European Union’s security studies institute says that this accession may increase tension with Russia, but on the other hand, increase European security, especially in Finland and Sweden. Álvaro Vasconcelos anticipates that the “probability of Europe having to get involved in a war, which happens due to an unexpected escalation of the war in Ukraine, is much lower”. The geostrategic expert foresees an increase in tension between the West and Russia, with this double entry into the Atlantic alliance.
But this will be an increase in tension that, according to Álvaro Vasconcelos, will not involve nuclear weapons. “Russia invaded Ukraine, pointed nuclear weapons at the West, and used nuclear blackmail, but they know that is not credible. Nobody expects Russia to start a nuclear war that would self-destruct.” The specialist shoots: “That would be suicide.”
Already this Thursday, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that it would take “technical-military” measures if Finland and Sweden joined NATO. Álvaro Vasconcelos says that one of the measures could involve placing nuclear weapons close to the more than 1000 km border he shares with Finland. An action that “would increase Finland’s sense of vulnerability to the Russian threat.
On the other hand, the also expert in geopolitics, says that Russia could “fly over” or “make naval maneuvers” with greater intensity in areas of Swedish or Finnish domain. “It would be a kind of provocation, to create tension and fear, [mostrando] that the entrance [de Suécia e Finlândia na NATO] was contrary to security interests [russos].
Who also has the same prediction is Major General Arnaut Moreira. For the military man who played several roles in NATO, there could be “a relocation of Russian forces”, which would involve fixing a “system of tactical ballistic system, cruise and reinforcement of military units” on the borders with Finland. This force would have to come from Ukraine, says the soldier, because “Russia already has, at the moment, a very large device in Ukraine, and it is already starting to lack some forces. Arnaut Moreira adds that, for this reason, these forces would have to be moved to the Finnish border, which would weaken the Ukrainian war front.
As for the NATO entry process, Major General Arnaut Moreira recalls that the membership criteria are much quicker and quicker to fulfill than the requests by the European Union, where “there are thousands of parameters that have to be satisfied”. In the case of the Atlantic alliance, he explains, the countries “have to seek to resolve conflicts peacefully, not be at the moment of joining at war”. That is why, Arnaut Moreira, says that the accession process has to be fast: “Imagine that two Russian battalions enter Finland and a process of war between the two countries is unleashed. war when it enters”. “Everything has to be very quick,” he adds.
The next NATO summit is scheduled for the end of June in Madrid. At that moment, the expert in geostrategy anticipates, Finland and Sweden will be able to officially join the Atlantic alliance, as long as they formalize, however, the application for membership.
For the specialist, what would make sense was a common request, because it would cause the process to be discussed “all at once, taking advantage of the set of meetings to discuss both accesses at once”. “It makes sense for Sweden to take advantage of Finland’s accession process”, first of all because, adds the expert, they share a border.
Major General Arnaut Moreira analyzes that NATO “will come out stronger” after these two entries and also have more “responsibility”, since the area to be defended will be larger. “NATO has also gained a very advantageous position, from a geographical point of view, because it has the entire north of Scandinavia. [na aliança atlântica] technologically advanced forces, despite being few in number”, says the expert.
The soldier, who played several roles in NATO, reinforces that the organization is “defensive”, so the rhetoric of threat of attack is “exclusively Russian”. “I never saw a map of Russia from the NATO meetings I attended,” he recalls.
For Arnaut Moreira, the country chaired by Vladimir Putin has to ask the question: “Why are countries not attracted to Russia and want to leave its orbit?”.