Beijing, China

A study by Fudan University in Shanghai pointed out that China is at risk of registering about 1.6 million deaths if it moderates or reduces measures to prevent and control Covid-19.

The peer-reviewed study, published in the journal Nature, concluded that the highly contagious Ómicron variant of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus was going to overwhelm the country’s hospital system, due to the low vaccination rate among the elderly and the lower effectiveness of vaccines. domestic inoculations.

The model, developed jointly by Chinese and US experts, suggested the outbreak would cause 112 million symptomatic cases, or 80 cases per 1,000 people, with 2.7 million requiring intensive care treatment.

During the peak, demand for intensive care would exceed current capacity by 16 times, according to the mathematical model used to simulate a hypothetical Omicron outbreak in China, based on data from the situation in Shanghai (east).

The researchers estimated that unvaccinated people over the age of 60 would be responsible for three-quarters (74.7%) of deaths, considering that 52 million people in this age group were not fully vaccinated as of mid-March.

In the best-case scenario, in which all symptomatic cases would be treated with the oral antiviral drug Paxlovid, developed by pharmaceutical Pfizer and approved in China, hospitalizations and deaths could be reduced by nearly 89%, they added.

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