Until recently, for those responsible for the national Executive, the Argentine problems were summed up to one: debt to the IMF.
Now that an agreement has been reached with the Fund, and he has even refinanced our liabilities at gift rates (with more than 8% inflation in the United States, the rate charged by the agency for replenishing BCRA reserves is negative, a gift that Argentina and even less this government have done very little to deserve), finally Alberto Fernandez and Martin Guzman they begin to talk about what has really been hampering our economic performance for years.
Guzman, harassed by hard kirchnerismohe did it these days more and more openly: he asked himself “in which country in the world have they worked, to direct the path of development, subsidies of 3 or 4 points of the product, persistent deficits financed by a currency that, due to inflation, people stop wanting.”
I also read: The reasons why Martín Guzmán decided to answer Cristina Kirchner today
Subsidies and issuance ended up being the worst of the minister’s “multicausal” film on inflation. Too bad he has come to that conclusion when the film, at least for him, is about to end.
The increasingly cold relationship between Cristina Kirchner and Martín Guzmán
And when it comes to attributing responsibilities, the head of Economy went much further. Already convinced that he has no way of recovering even an iota of the affection that Cristina Kirchner professed for him until recently, which is why he had been recommended by Joseph Stiglitz, he dared to question the official premise that until 2015 things were going great in the country: spoke of “macroeconomic inconsistencies”a balm for orthodox ears and an inadmissible heresy in the Patria Institute.
He also recalled that during CFK’s last mandate in La Rosada there was a strong loss of reserves and that the external dynamics “was unsustainable”. Precisely what economists and critical politicians have been reproaching him for the past ten years, and Kirchnerism insists on ignoring.
Perhaps Guzmán’s chain was released, after the avalanche of public mistreatment suffered in the last two weeks. Or maybe he is being farsighted, and preparing the ground to return to the academy soon, or to land with some colleague in an international organization.
In any case, we must celebrate the recognition of reality, of the structural and domestic nature of the problems that afflict us, which animates his words. In replacement of the self-indulgent fantasies with which the government and Guzmán himself had been teasing us, with that “Once we renegotiate the debt with the Fund, everything will be on track” because “that is the real obstacle that prevents us from growing”, etc. etc.
The problem is that, together with this greater dose of realism in the economic diagnosis, both Guzmán and the President seem to be embracing a political strategy that could only be considered viable if we adorn it with the most fantastic illusions.
They imagine that, if they don’t make changes, they will be able to “hold on” and weaken the Kirchnerist offensive “due to fatigue.”
They also fantasize that “The worst is over” in relation to the state of mind of society, and that she, or at least a majority portion of Peronism and its voters, will value the attitude “responsible” to which the national government clings.
Cristina Kirchner’s offensive brought unexpected support for Alberto and Guzmán
They also estimate that the offensive by Cristina Kirchner and her associates against them inadvertently provided them with solid support from the business community, and sympathy even in the usually most critical media, which can be added to that of governors and unions to hold out until the elections. And this in turn will feed the certainty of economic operators regarding the “progress in the fulfillment of the program”.
With which the economic recovery will also be consolidated and inflation will tend to moderate. In a virtuous circle that could be characterized as miraculous even if it were only half completed, for a government that does not have legislative majorities, has no social consensus or viable candidate for succession, and whose main members are openly questioned by their own allies. And on top of all that, let’s agree, he doesn’t have a program either, because he never wanted to have one.
I also read: Cristina Kirchner set conditions to negotiate, but Alberto Fernández rejected them
If they insist on this situation, Fernández and Guzmán may provide a final service to Kirchnerism: when inflation continues, or worse, accelerates fueled by the rise in rates, the homeless parity and the growing difficulties in financing the deficit in the peso market, the recovery stops as a result of that, in addition to the uncertainty generated by the crisis in the ruling party and the growing proximity of the elections, Cristina Kirchner and La Cámpora will be able to say with more reason than until now that this “it is not your failure” but that of the moderate and lukewarm, those who slacked off against the Fund, the businessmen and the opposition.
That is why Cristina Kirchner is not in a hurry to sit down and talk. And she understands that the Albertista resistance comes in handy.
One of the two is making a fierce mistake in his political diagnosis. We’ll soon find out who.