Until the Government can moderately restore the confidence and the stabilitythe volatility in the parallel market will be a constantaccording to the analysis of specialists consulted by TN.
The crisis of debtadded to the inflationthe collection of bonusthe drought of foreign currency income as a result of the end of the liquidation of the harvest and fears for a greater interventionalso push the parallel market.
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The projections in this sense are not good for the short term. Nothing indicates that the situation will reverse quickly and in the market prepare to a persistent climb in the price of the blue dollar.
This Wednesday, the parallel dollar closed at its high of $224. He added $8 on the last two wheels. The positive news of the day was that the Ministry of Economy achieved a good result in its debt swap in pesos.
The largest circulation of pesos ends in the blue dollar
The factors that push the price of the blue dollar are several and in the short term they do not seem to begin to give way.
Lucio Garay Mendezeconomic analyst at Echo Go, estimated that “in the coming days the blue dollar is going to suffer a little pressure”. “The bonus payment can influence in the price of the parallel dollar, and the exchange rate gap can widen”, he mentioned.
The greater circulation of local currency with the payment of the bonus usually goes in a significant proportion to the dollars under the mattress which, due to restrictions, move mainly in the parallel market.
“The non-absorption of dollars by the Central Bank may inflate devaluation expectations and that can be transferred to the parallel dollar”, said Garay Méndez.
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Meanwhile, for George Hilleconomist at Institute for Argentine Social Development (Idesa)“the blue dollar will continue to rise because accompanies inflationwhich is accelerating, because when it becomes cheap, people demand it”.
The blue dollar closely follows stock prices
For Joel Lupieriof epic Cconsultantsin the short term “the most feasible thing is that keep an uptrend by the blue with respect to the rest of the prices, as a result of which the stock market, the CCL, the MEP has gone much higher and it is natural that the parallel market begins to match the price of others”.
The same analysis did Guido Lawrenceeconomist at LCGwhich assessed that the parallel price “has to go following the trajectory that the contado has with liqui, which is bullish”.
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Although stock prices have also been showing high volatility (this Wednesday, the cash with settlement (CCL) fell 2.3% and the MEP dollar fell 1.3% and with fewer obstacles to access financial dollars, the so-called “free” MEP fell 2.3%), they are around $230 to $235, so the blue tends to narrow that gap, at times when that the Central Bank can intervene less, having less foreign exchange due to the end of the harvest settlement.
“The first half of the year was more or less still at $200 because it is the harvest season and with the high international prices, many dollars in the Central Bank, which were the parallel dollar and kept itHill explained.
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For the remainder of the year, he anticipated that “the entry of dollars into the Central Bank is finished and the blue dollar is going to start rising”. “In december inflation is going to be 80% and the blue dollar is going to be close to $300“, said.
Noise and instability do not help calm the market
To all the factors that have to do with usual situations for this time of year (bonus, settlement of the harvest) in the current situation is added a market attentive to what happens in the Government and in the internal Front of All.
Lupieri mentioned that “one factor that can fuel prices is that there are more regulations”, but assessed that “this should not happen in the short term”.
However, he said that “the noise that is being generated in what could be a intervention if Vincentin or one radicalization of some issues related to the Government they could generate more uncertainty in investors, both in the parallel dollar and in the stock market”.
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There could also be a scenario in which to iron out the blue, the Government decides a “intervention in caves or exchange houses, through a power of attorney coercive that makes trading virtually paralyze, but this it would not seem to be in the folder any time soon”, he estimated.
“We don’t expect him to get pricked for anything these days. After, if trust is rebuilt, little by little it may go backwards”, Lorenzo evaluated. In the same sense as Colina, who said that “It will go up little by little, not with jumps, but at the end of the year it will reach $300″.