As on very few occasions, last Sunday’s election day in Colombia – in which Gustavo Petro won the presidency of Colombia by defeating Rodolfo Hernández – was followed by a festive Monday, which is why the effect of the election was not immediately felt. that result in the stock markets or in the behavior of the dollar.
Because it is a Monday holiday, the stock market and the foreign exchange market will only react this Tuesday to the victory of the left in Colombia, the fourth largest economy in Latin America. The expectation is great due to the campaign announcements of today’s president-elect and the uncertainty caused by knowing what his economic team will be.
(Interested in: Gustavo Petro’s economic proposals on taxes, subsidies, employment and the pocket)
Starting this Tuesday, June 21, the 48-day countdown begins for Petro to take possession, on August 7. From then on, he will have to show half of Colombians that he convinced with his proposals —and the other half who did not believe him— that he will be able to transform a country with the second widest gap between rich and poor in Latin America and plagued by the drug violence.
Last Friday, two days before election day, the Market Representative Rate (TRM) was 3,905.05 pesos. But analysts consulted by The Republic estimated that this week the price of the dollar will reach 4,077 pesos on average. They also argued that Petro’s victory would be “decisive in a devaluation of the currency, similar to that observed in Chile and Peru after the electoral results.”
In his first speech as president-elect, Petro sent a reassuring message to the business community that accused him of promoting a failed socialism during the campaign. “It was a campaign of lies and fear: that we were going to expropriate Colombians, that we were going to destroy private property […]. We are going to develop capitalism in Colombia. Not because we love it, but because we have to get over pre-modernity first,” he said.
It was “a very clear message to the right, saying: ‘I am on the left, but that does not mean that I am going to radically transform the economic model,'” Felipe Botero, a professor at the University’s political science faculty, told AFP. of the Andes.
In fact, the vice president and chancellor, Marta Lucía Ramírez, recommended to the president-elect: “We hope that the next government will strengthen the institutions […] and stimulate sustainable economic development taking advantage of the diversified apparatus that we have in our industrialists and entrepreneurs to generate more jobs, because the closing of social gaps, the elimination of extreme poverty and the reduction of monetary poverty will only be possible with economic growth and with quality jobs hand in hand with the Colombian private sector”.
But the economist Jorge Restrepo, a professor at the Javeriana University, warns that the former guerrilla and senator must still build “trust” with the productive sector. “It has to do with companies not being considered as rivals, but as managers of development and job creation […]. It is very difficult because there is no history of a leftist government at the national level.”
(You can also read: Subsidies, not “alms”, that Gustavo Petro will give: 8 million people will receive them)
Judging by Petro’s first speech, the friction will not be long in coming: “He said things that imply regulation, one of the main fears of the markets,” warned Botero.
Businessman Mario Hernández, an active opponent of Petro during the campaign, was open to listening. “Gustavo Petro had the opportunity to show 50% of Colombians and me that we were wrong,” the clothing tycoon said on Twitter.
The right in power, some unions and sectors of the military fear that Petro will expropriate assets and lead the country towards a failed socialism.
However, former President Álvaro Uribe (2002-2010), leader of the government party, received the victory of his strong opponent with measure. “To defend democracy, it is necessary to abide by it. Gustavo Petro is the President. Let a feeling guide us: First Colombia, ”he wrote on Twitter.