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One month before the first round of the legislative elections, the political forces are in place to try to win the majority or, at the very least, the role of first opponent on the benches of the National Assembly.
After weeks of sometimes stormy negotiations, the Macronists, the now united left and the far right lined up their candidates in most of the 577 constituencies at stake in the June 12 and 19 legislative elections.
No less than 19 members of the outgoing government – including Gérald Darmanin, Minister of the Interior, Elisabeth Borne, Minister of Labor or Jean-Michel Blanquer, Minister of Education, are trying their luck.
“Don’t be intimidated (…) fight!” Emmanuel Macron told his troops on May 10.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, figurehead of the left united in the Nupes (New Popular, Ecological and Social Union), would see himself as Prime Minister of cohabitation. But he should not run for office himself.
Marine Le Pen, again a candidate in Pas-de-Calais and with an unprecedented score for the far right in the second round of the presidential election (41.5%), wants a parliamentary group as substantial as possible, but without risk a quantified prognosis.
Reconquest! by Éric Zemmour will present candidates almost everywhere, the RN having refused to form an alliance. The ex-extreme right-wing presidential candidate will run for him in the 4and constituency of Var, Saint-Tropez. He had obtained 14.7% of the votes in the first round of the presidential election in this constituency, against 32.2% for Marine Le Pen and 24.1% for Emmanuel Macron. He will face a candidate from the RN.
Third round of the presidential election?
At the national level, the candidates of the Nupes would collect in the first round 28% of the votes, against 27% for those of the presidential camp, 22% for those of the RN and 11% for the LR and their UDI and centrist allies, according to an Ifop poll Fiduciary for LCI.
But after the comfortable re-election of Emmanuel Macron (58.5%), many analysts and even opponents expect him to retain a majority in the National Assembly around the troika En Marche, MoDem, Horizons.
Two-round majority voting method helping, the macronist camp would ultimately win between 310 and 350 seats, against 135 to 165 for the Nupes, and 20 to 40 for the RN, according to a projection by the Opinionway institute.
“There is no third round of the presidential election,” insisted the head of state on Tuesday.
PS spokesman Pierre Jouvet accuses Emmanuel Macron of wanting to “step over” this new ballot so as not to have to talk about his balance sheet or his projects, in particular retirement at 65.
But Marine Le Pen herself concedes that “the logic of the institutions wants the President of the Republic to have a majority”. “All those who tell something else tell fables”, she mocks in the direction of Jean-Luc Mélenchon and his hopes of entering Matignon. “The real question”, according to her, “is what opposition” the head of state will have in front of him. Clearly, challenge the Insoumis and their allies the place of first opponents of France.
Since the advent of the five-year term in 2002, the legislative “have lost their autonomy and are very strongly indexed on the result of the presidential election”, underlines Frédéric Dabi, of Ifop.
But several factors create uncertainties: extent of abstention, long duration of the campaign – almost two months between the end of the presidential election and the first round of legislative elections -, head of state re-elected for the first time outside cohabitation. .
“Are the French going to want to balance, to compensate their vote?” asks Frédéric Dabi.
Denys Pouillard, from the Observatory of Political and Parliamentary Life, also believes “that we are going towards a majority” renewed for the President of the Republic. “But the dosage remains a question” within a Macronist majority which ranges from a left wing to defectors from the classic right, he adds.
Uncertainties on the left too, where the electorate of social democratic tradition, “who does not want to hear about the program of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, could well go to the Republic on the move”, he adds. Not to mention “dissident” candidates on the left, which could trip up Nupes candidates.
On the right, LR, sounded by the debacle of Valérie Pécresse in the presidential election (4.78%), relies on its solid network of territorial elected officials. And hopes to bring back to the fold its most conservative fringe seduced by the far right, but also to stem the departures of elected officials towards