Hernández vs Petro: Who is winning in the latest RCN Tracking 8 days before the second round in Colombia?

In the June 11 measurement of the Presidential Tracking that the GAD3 measurement company carries out for RCN Radio and TV, a slight recovery of Rodolfo Hernandez versus Gustavo Petro ahead of the presidential elections on June 19 in Colombia.

The candidate of Historical Pact had accelerated strongly in front of the former mayor of Bucaramanga in previous measurements, but in this of June 11 Rodolfo Hernández recharges again. Nevertheless, the tracking shows a close tie between both candidates.

LOOK: Petro vs Hernández: the key regions and populations for the presidential elections in Colombia

This presidential tracking began reporting around May 31 a wide difference in intention to vote in favor of Rodolfo Hernández with 52.5 percent of intention to vote, compared to 44.8 percent of Gustav Petro.

This difference has been closed over the days until a technical draw between 46 and 47 percent between both candidates. On June 7, Gustavo Petro took a slight lead over Rodolfo Hernández.

LOOK: How the dirty war comes to the fore in the final stretch of the presidential campaign in Colombia

In this measurement of June 11 is Rodolfo Hernández who again cuts ground and returns slightly to the top. However, the tie persists, as in the most recent Guarumo and Invamer polls, so a vote is predicted with little difference between the winner of the second presidential round and the loser.

By region, Rodolfo Hernández leads in Antioquia, the Central Eastern, Central South and Los Llanos areas; while Gustavo Petro achieves greater voting intention in Bogotá, the Caribbean and Pacific zones.

Technical sheet of the Presidential Tracking of GD3 for RCN

Legal entity that carried it out: GAD3 Colombia SAS

Legal entity that entrusted it: RCN Television S.A.

Funding source: RCN Television S.A.

Type of sample and procedure used to select the sample units: Random selection of interviewees with daily compliance with quotas by sex and age and geographical quotas. Proportional allocation in the country as a whole. (See table on geographical distribution of the sample).

Sample size: Total: 4,836 according to the following waves: 30/31-May: 1,200; Jun-1: 556; Jun-2: 553; Jun-3: 531, Jun-4: 400, Jun-6: 401, Jun-7: 400, Jun-8: 397 and Jun-9: 398. Subject of study: Voting intentions for the second round of elections presidential in Colombia 2022

Specific questions asked: 14 (the complete form with the complete answers is attached)

Characters who were inquired about: Presidential candidates for the second round Colombia 2022: Gustavo Petro and Rodolfo Hernández.

Area (geographic universe and population universe): National scope. Residents in Colombia with the right to vote.

Technique used for sample selection: Computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) to cell phones in Colombia.

Date of collection: May 30 to June 10, 2022, ai

Error range: ± 1.4% (n=4,836) for a degree of confidence of 95.5% (two sigma) and in the most unfavorable hypothesis of=0.5 in the assumption of simple random sampling.

Statistician who designed the research: Doctor Narciso Michavila Núñez.

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