It is only certain that Ferenc Gyurcsány is unshakable

After the election failure on April 3, several opposition party leaders blamed Péter Márki-Zay, the joint prime ministerial candidate, for the result, and a majority of party presidents seemed to retain their position despite two-thirds of the new Fidesz-KDNP. Eventually, for a variety of reasons, we can see a shift across multiple parties.

Anna Donáth will be her mother

The then party chairman, András Fekete-Győr, reached 3.39 percent in the opposition pre-election field, where he finished in last place, except for József Pálinkás, who could not run due to the lack of a sufficient number of signatures.

András Fekete-Győr was subsequently removed from the party’s leadership in October 2021, and Anna Orosz managed the Momentum as a trustee until the resumption of office. In November, Anna Donáth was elected president of the party.

Before the post-election renewal, Anna Donáth announced that she would be a mother, so she would not resume for the presidency, which eventually became Ferenc Gelencsér, ahead of Gábor Kerpel-Fronius and Miklós Hajnal.

We have previously asked analysts about the current state of Momentum and the opportunities facing the party.

Gergely Christmas was determined

The Dialogue is currently chaired by Gergely Karácsony and Tímea Szabó. The mayor, on the other hand, gave it to in an interview revealed that he will not restart for the position:

Regardless of the election, I have decided not to resume my position as Co-Chair of the Dialogue. We can refresh our blood. If you agree, I will support Bence Tordai.

The party’s renewal is likely to take place in late summer, early September.

The announcement of the Dialogue at the end of April revealed that after the expiration of the term of office of Tímea Szabó as co-chair, she would take over the position of group leader from Bence Tordai from the beginning of the September session.

Bertalan Tóth does not want to leave

Like the Dialogue, the MSZP operates in a co-chair structure, with Ágnes Kunhalmi and Bertalan Tóth leading the socialists.

Bertalan Tóth announced at the end of April that he would not start again:

Before the Board, I said that I did not want to run for co-chairing in the autumn, so I would be helping the team as a leader of the parliamentary group and a member of the team.

Ágnes Kunhalmi asked the Immediate Question earlier formulated: “Whether I will run again as co-chair, I will tell first not to the public but to the party’s membership.” We asked Agnes Kunhalmi if she could tell more than that since then, but we got a negative answer.

A newcomer has already registered, István Ujhelyi, the party’s MEP, would reform the MSZP, you can read our interview here. The renewal of the MSZP will take place at the end of October.

They took control of Peter James

Unsurprisingly, Péter Jakab did not make it to the second round of the opposition pre-election, finishing fourth behind the prime ministerial candidates Klára Dobrev, Gergely Karácsony and Péter Márki-Zay.

Already on the eve of the April 3 election, the party president blamed Péter Márki-Zay, the joint prime ministerial candidate, for the failure. The numbers showed, by the way, that a significant number of former Jobbik voters had stayed at home or cast their vote for a different start.

Nevertheless, Péter Jakab’s position within the party seemed stable, with 71.4 per cent of the delegates being re-elected president of Jobbik at the May re-election congress.

About a month later, however, Péter Jakab announced his resignation as president:

It is now clear that the new presidency does not want to go down the path of membership, that I will not be given the majority to make the necessary decisions, that is, that Jobbik’s leadership has been taken out of my hands. For the movement to continue to work, it needs a president with whom the presidency can work. He can’t with me, so I’m resigning as Jobbik’s president today. I fight Fides at any time, but I don’t fight Jobbik.

Until the resumption of office, the party will be led by Anita Potocskáné Kőrösi as executive chairman, as well as György László Lukács, Anita Kvárik, Balázs Ander, Dániel Z. Kárpát, Róbert Dudás and Zoltán Magyar.

Máté Kanász-Nagy has not yet decided

The co-chairs of the LMP are Erzsébet Schmuck and Máté Kanász-Nagy. The party’s leader, Péter Ungár, said earlier that he was going to run for co-chair, but he wanted to discuss this with the others. Also he added then how

I’m not the biggest fan of the co-chair system. I think we can expect results from a political leader if we create the conditions to make a decision and then be held accountable. If we do not create the conditions for this, the results cannot be expected either.

We contacted Máté Kanász-Nagy in connection with the forthcoming renewal of his office, he told our newspaper:

I’m going to start the reshuffle, but I haven’t decided yet for what position. I will review the challenges and tasks facing the party and then decide.

Ferenc Gyurcsány did not shake his authority

The opposition coalition suffered a heavy defeat on April 3, with DK coming out the best in the six-party race. Péter Niedermüller, Mayor of Erzsébetváros SE a To the Mandiner In a given interview, he stated that the election did not shake the authority of Ferenc Gyurcsány:

Everyone can be sure that this election did not shake the authority of the DK President within the party for a moment, especially in light of the fact that the Democratic Coalition has become the strongest political formation in the opposition.

The Democratic Coalition’s renewal congress will be held in the fall. We wrote more about the political role of Ferenc Gyurcsány here.

Charisma, fitness, guidance

To our question about the importance of party presidents, János Kovács explained that leadership has been important since the personalization of politics, and that the party president is typically a leading political figure representing his political community at the highest level, even if he is not a prime ministerial candidate, list leader or faction leader. role.

In addition to the existence of personal charisma, awareness and suitability, the provision of strategic guidance and vision is an important aspect, which defines the framework of community identity and strongly influences – in addition to the existence or scarcity of resources – the organization-building potential.

The political analyst also believes it is important to see that “neither a responsible, concretized, client-building party presidency nor too frequent and unconceptual changes of leadership will help a political party’s long-term success”.

DK-Momentum duel?

Do we see a player among the six parties with potentially good opportunities to stand out and dominate the opposition space? – we asked János Kovács, who said that the opposition competition of the next period would be about that.

It is worth noting that the opposition palette is so fragmented that we do not even see stable middle parties. The main categorization criterion for each party is whether they would be able to jump the five percent threshold in the case of stand-alone listing.

The political analyst believes that in the current situation, DK and Momentum have stronger growth prospects than the previous alliance parties, but in both cases the growth ceiling is also visible, “which in the case of DK is more due to Ferenc Gyurcsány’s and in the case of Momentum, the frequent changes of the recent period, be it the composition of the party leadership or the shortcomings of the content side of the political offer ”.

János Kovács summarized the situation of the other parties in such a way that Jobbik started on the path of “small-scale farming”, the MSZP got into the “gravitational vortex” of the SE, the LMP and the Dialogue did not have relevant social support.

In this situation, however, there is room for Our Country, which is trying to fill the “market gap” left by the former Jobbik, and although it is unlikely to become dominant, it may have its own ambitions in the medium term if there is a high level of rejection of “coalition parties”.

The analyst noted that purely protest formations such as the Two-Tailed are able to ride this anti-establishment sentiment among those seeking a change of government, in which opposition parties are seen by many as system-builders. He also added that Ferenc Gyurcsány’s party is most open to striving for dominance, with Momentum being considered the main rival in this area, which was reflected in the debate in the capital and in the run-up to the by-elections.

Are you together or apart?

According to János Kovács, there is a debate as to whether “the form forced by electoral mathematics or the political content that filled it — including the candidates’ identities, communications, and social offer — failed on April 3 ”.

Opposition parties have responded to this: competition has intensified again with a minimum of co-operation. Now, each formation is trying to highlight its own identity, image, political character, credo, or value-oriented program points — even engaging in controversy with other opposition actors.

The analyst expects that in national politics, cooperation may temporarily take a back seat against individual path-finding and profit maximization until the balance of power is clarified and another stakes match is imminent.

Such will be the EP election and the local government election, which, as Máté Kocsis, the leader of the Fidesz faction, revealed in a background debate on Tuesday, can be held on the same day from 2024 onwards.

Regarding the two elections, János Kovács said that the parties in the European Parliament with a voter base in the measurable range, not fully able to obtain a seat, more motivated than the average and easier to mobilize, are most interested in the separate start. In contrast, the logic of the municipal elections favors the assertion of common candidates and closer coordination with a certain size of settlement and is expected to be more competitive.

The analyst also pointed out that this picture could be significantly affected if the two choices were made on the same day, raising several concerns, “some of which are not necessarily legal in nature, but rather legitimate in nature”.

Finally, János Kovács summarized the future of opposition cooperation as follows:

In the medium term, the struggle for dominance and the gathering of our own, more committed voters may be the main goal of each opposition party, which will obviously be frictional, but in the longer term, as long as the opposition remains fragmented and organizational integration, there is no alternative. The question is which parties such an alliance will bring together, with what personal and content offerings.

Fidesz held a new office in November 2021, where Viktor Orbán was re-elected party chairman.

(Cover image: Ferenc Gyurcsány. Photo: Patrícia Bodnár / Index)

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