Lula was one step away from being elected president in the first round of the elections on October 2 in Brazil, according to the latest poll by Datafolha released this Thursday.
The advantage of the former Brazilian president over the current president, Jair Bolsonaro, increased two points in the last week. According to the survey, 10 days after the most polarized elections in the history of Brazil, Lula has 47% support compared to 33% for the current head of state. The advantage thus increased from 12 to 14 percentage points.
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Without the white or invalid votes, Lula would reach 50% of the votes, according to the Datafolha survey
The poll, the largest done to date by the country’s main demographic firm, showed that Lula’s vote intention grew two percentage points compared to the 45% he had in last week’s poll. Bolsonaro, who aspires to be re-elected, remained stable at 33%.
The study surveyed 6,754 voters in 343 cities between Tuesday and Thursday.
The Datafolha poll has a two-point margin of error. His result left the leader of the Workers’ Party (PT) with the possibility of being elected without the need for a second round, scheduled for October 30 in the event that none of the candidates obtains more than half of the valid votes.
This is due to the fact that, taking into account the valid votes, that is, discounting the blank and invalid ones,The intention to vote in Lula rose from 48% last week to 50% in the survey concluded this Thursday, while that of Bolsonaro remained at 35%.
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The strategy of the former president (2003-2010) in the last days of the campaign has been to look for the “helpful vote” of the voters who are still betting on third-party candidates to try to guarantee their election in the first round.
Lula’s campaign seeks to seduce the voters of Ciro Gómez and Simone Tebet
Lula’s campaign has been appealing for the support of Labor voters Cyrus Gomes, third most voted candidate in the 2018 presidential elections and whose intention to vote fell from 8% last week to the current 7%. He also points to the supporters of Senator Simone Tebet, a candidate for the main parties in the center of the country and whose favoritism remained stable at 5%. Only one other candidate, out of the eleven contesting the presidential elections, manages to appear in the polls: Senator Soraya Thronicke, a candidate for the right-wing Union Brazil, whose intention to vote fell from 2% to 1%.
For the demographic data analyst Mauro Paulinothe increase in Lula’s intention to vote and the drop in that of Ciro Gomes and Thronicke makes it clear that the former union leader’s strategy of seeking the “useful vote” to define the lawsuit in the first round has been successful.
”The result shows that there are already voters opting for the useful vote, but what is going to define whether Lula is elected in the first round or not is going to be the level of abstention. If the voters mobilize so that the lawsuit is defined on October 2, Lula will be able to obtain more than half of the valid votesbut a high rate of abstention can harm it”, stated the analyst.