The lack of dollars It returned to the center of the scene shortly after the end of the second quarter, usually the one with the highest level of foreign currency income and hoarding by the Central Bank (BCRA). But bottleneck current, in the midst of Record field liquidation and purchases at energy peaksset off the alarms in the Government, which is looking for mechanisms to avoid a greater bleeding of foreign currency.
In this context, it aims to “prioritize” purchases from the world, greater trade administration, with greater lock on importers, as anticipated TN, before reinforcing the stocks for other sectors, such as services, tourism or hoarding. There were even businessmen who suggested coordinate imports from the chambers sectoral.
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At the same time, analyze mechanisms to encourage producers to get rid of faster than later soy that keep as store of value. According to the president of the Central Bank, Miguel Pescethe producers have in their power oilseed valued for $2.5 billionwhich should have already entered the market but whose marketing is slowing down amid high international prices.
What options does the Government have to stop the outflow of dollars?
The Minister of Productive Development, Daniel ScioliY Fish gave signs this weekend about the course that the Government will follow in the absence of dollars. They ruled out a new tourniquet exchange. They pointed to a coordination, with the Minister of Economy, Martín Guzmán, to stop “possible speculative maneuvers” and strengthen the availability of foreign exchange for productive imports.
Scioli insisted on the need to “export more” to generate the dollars that the country requires and, meanwhile, “set priorities, guarantee foreign currency for the productive sectors and not for speculation”. He stated that he will address “company by company, sector by sector”, said this Sunday to the newspaper Clarion.
“We have to be vigilant because when there are gaps, many times there can be some kind of maneuver to get hold of dollars. What I I cannot be claiming foreign exchange for products that can be manufactured here. Today we are in the stage of substitution of imports”, highlighted the official.
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Pesce added that the aim is to “overcome the bottleneck for energy imports through the improvement of the payment system and trade administration, to that there are no speculative maneuvers of those who matter more than they need or seek to stock up on imported products”, he listed.
“We are constantly evaluating the situation. It is not a trap nor does it seek to restrict imports for growth. We need to improve the financing of imports and avoid speculation. If necessary, appropriate measures will be taken.”said the head of the BCRA in statements to radio AM750.
This Wednesday the INDEC will announce the Argentine commercial exchange (ICA) of May 2022 and the accumulated in five months, with the data of exports and imports. It is discounted that sales to the world grew, but purchases abroad did more and that they could be above US$7.5 billion, a maximum in more than a decade.
The Government’s “short blanket”: between managing the few dollars available and an abrupt devaluation
Record purchases from the world, economists warn will force the Government to reinforce imports. Whether with new mechanisms or expansion of sectors that are not automatically authorized to access the official dollar.
In dialogue with TNthe Economist Ricardo Delgadofrom the consultant Analyticsconsidered that managing trade “It is a less painful path than devaluing in this context of acute shortage of reserves”.
The analyst confirmed that a new restriction on access to official dollars by importers can have an impact on economic activity and in the rates inflation future, due to possible supply problems derived from reinforcing controls on purchases from the world.
On that point, from Ieral of the Mediterranean Foundationthe Economist Jorge Vasconcelos warns that a reinforcement of import controls, with the current level of the exchange rate gap, can accelerate dollar inflation.
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He remarks that, based on data from the Buenos Aires Department of Statistics, the prices in dollars of goods and services regulated items fell 5.3% in the last twelve months, while the “unregulated” I know they became 26% more expensive and the rise is “40% for goods protected from external competition, that is, due to the existing restrictions to import”.
“To the extent that shortage is accentuated in those segments that suffer the most difficulties in accessing dollars at the official exchange rate and, to the extent that the expansionary fiscal policy continues to feed domestic demand above supply capacities, that is very difficult to stop inflation in dollars”, Vasconcelos pointed out.
Fernando Marulfrom the consultant FMyA, adds that there are “high chances” to harden the trap in tourism or services and, as a last option to the imports or debt.