The prestigious economic consultant, Michelangelo Brodaspoke in Fontevecchia modeby Net TV Y Radius Profile (FM 101.9), and emphasized that “with Massa there is a chance not to fall into hyperinflation.” In addition, he referred to the incorporation of Gabriel Rubinstein as “a positive and necessary contribution”. He also explained why “Cristina panicked and removed her objections” to make changes in the Cabinet.
What is accelerating in the Argentine economy?
The acceleration of the crisis justifies the assumption of Massa. As of June 8, when the demand for the debt in pesos of the Treasury, let’s enter a maelstrom, with notable monetary issue to buy titles. Then the same thing happened to finance the fiscal deficit and we had the stop the payment of imports, with its effects on the productive sector and prices. We also had the surprise resignation of Guzmán, which was because he realized what was coming. Then came one Minister of Economy who had a correct presentation, but he was not given support to implement what he had announced. There was a serious increase in macro imbalances and that context allowed the arrival of Massa to the Ministry of Economy, because Cristina panicked and removed her objections due to the magnitude of the crisis.
This context helps to understand that we are in the presence of an emergency program, which serves to resolve the crisis that had worsened. The ads are from a good diagnosis and it will depend on how the announced measures are implemented. It may last a few months and it will be seen if something more serious can be done or not. The criticisms from both sides seem exaggerated to me, it is an emergency program fairly reasonable and he is the first Minister of Economy who has the support of Cristina. The same person can different programs. Step with Menemwhich had Erman González and Cavallo; macri he had the spending maniac of Prat-Gay and the adjuster of Dujovne.
Who is Gabriel Rubinstein, the economist who chose Massa to be his vice
What chance do you assign that this plan reaches the World Cup without falling into hyperinflation?
Me I am not a market fundamentalist. I study the theory to see how it works for Argentina and many of the macroeconomists passed through my study, from Milei to Rubinstein. I believe that the State has a very important role. This emergency program maintains the populist course of state intervention to solve the supposed failures of the market. If he Christina’s support continues and can be implemented or strengthened with macroeconomists who take into account the general equilibrium, I think that with Massa there is a chance not to fall into hyperinflation. We are going to continue with high rates and walking in the mud, but the car is not going to sink.
He mentioned Gabriel Rubinstein, who will be Sergio Massa’s Vice Minister of Economy. What reference can you give us?
He worked for a long time as Manager of my risk rating agency and then as an economist for the study, for a shorter time. I have a good opinion, it is a positive and necessary contribution. How much more technically robust is the support of a Minister of Economy, it will be better. If you want to repeat the history of Fernando Henrique Cardoso in Brazil, one has to know that his intellectual qualities were very different and the real plan that promoted him to the presidency was made by a technical talent.
The team that Sergio Massa put together, is it solid?
It’s a team of honest and hardworking people, but with partial balance blinders. I am very sorry that there are no more experienced macroeconomists and with rigorous studies attending Massa. But we are in a program that does not have a before and after, it is an emergency. Cristina saw the abyss and that is why La Cámpora is not going to bombard it as it did with Guzman and since he did not support batakis.
Sergio Massa plays a silver bullet in Congress with four bills
What is your medium-term outlook for the Argentine economy?
If a vote were taken today, the opposition would win and that is good news. We are not sure that the new President carries decadence in his blood and has the courage to do what corresponds to be a normal country. They left the ball to Argentina in the small area without a goalkeeper. The geopolitical change modified the economy and that favors us in terms of agriculture, mining and Vaca Muerta. Argentina is an incredible waste. When I studied we compared it with the best countries in the world and now the comparisons are with Uruguay, Paraguay, Brazil, Colombia and Peru.
I’m not going to see it, but I have a very positive vision of Argentina’s long term. Today there is a general feeling of waste it is to continue with this macroeconomic disorder. It is a task of one or two decades to make the country normal. That is why one of my biggest discrepancies with the Fund’s very good team is that they threw in the towel with Argentina. We don’t have much time because the exodus of talent is phenomenal.
Nuria Am (NA): Regarding Rubinstein’s definitions, he said in the last few hours that an ambitious goal is to eliminate the deficit and that inflation is more of a political problem than an economic one. Do you agree with those concepts?
I’m absolutely according to the first statement. Regarding the second, something should be clarified. If one thinks that the inflation it is a monetary phenomenon that, in the short term, has other causes, and that the history of Argentina is the fiscal deficit, with absolute domination over monetary policy and issuance, and for it to go down it is necessary to eliminate it and a political power, I also agree with the second statement.
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