Omicron case 'tsunami' awaits China if it recklessly backs away from its 'zero Covid' policy

“China could face a ‘tsunami’ that could overwhelm its hospitals and kill over a million people if it abandons its ‘zero Covid’ strategy. This is what indicates a new study published on Tuesday [10 mai] in NatureMedicine, at a time when the authorities are stepping up their efforts to apply this controversial strategy despite the increasingly heavy social and economic costs of these ultra-strict confinements”, reports the American newspaper Forbes.

The study authors, researchers from the Fudan University School of Public Health in Shanghai, Indiana University in the United States, and the American medical research agency National Institutes of Health relied on a mathematical model to simulate a hypothetical uncontrolled wave of the Omicron variant, based on data from the outbreak in Shanghai.

“We estimate that the level of immunity achieved thanks to the March 2022 vaccination campaign would not be sufficient to prevent a wave of contamination with the Omicron variant. This would result in overcrowding of intensive care units, where maximum demand could be 15.6 times greater than capacity.

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