Various private analysts consulted on the forecast for the year 2022 in Argentina they assure that the economy will continue to deteriorate over the months, especially with regard to the government’s ability to control price increases.
The last Survey of Market Expectations (REM) published by the central bank (BCRA) shows a rise of 14.2 percentage points in the forecast for inflation for the end of the year, which is already at 90.2%.
Private consultants believe that the exchange rate wholesaler will close this year $167.16, although it would still be delayed compared to the prices.
The forecasts of inflation by 2023 reached the 76.6%, namely 12 percentage points more than in the previous survey. Towards 2024, meanwhile, those who responded to the REM expect prices to rise 60% (9.8 points more than a month ago).
What will be the inflation for the months that follow until the end of the year
Private analysts estimate different inflation rates for the remainder of 2022.
July closed with an inflation of 7.5%, which meant an increase of 2.7 percentage points in relation to the previous survey.
Towards the end of Augustprivate consultants estimate that prices will rise 6% (1.5 percentage points above last month).
For September expect inflation to be cut to 5.5% (a monthly increase of 1 percentage point).
In october analysts expect the Consumer Price Index to mark 5.3% (a difference of 1.1 percentage points in relation to the previous REM).
According to forecasts, inflation would decline again in november, when would it be 5% (0.8 percentage points higher than the previous survey).
However, the IPC would rise again in december, when would it be 5.1% (also 0.8 percentage point above the report from early July).
How much will the official dollar quote in the coming months?
The forecast of private economists is that the wholesale dollar will reach $167.16 by December 31st. The experts consulted by the Central Bank also estimated what the value of the US currency will be in the official market during the coming months.
In August the wholesale exchange rate would reach $135.49 (1.80 cents more than a month ago).
Towards September would come to $143.55, that is, 3.56 cents above the previous calculation.
projection of october rose $4.54, to $150.45.
The forecast of november rose $6.03 and stayed at $158.21.