The consolidation of data from the main researches since September 2021, prepared by scientist Sergio Abranches, results in a graph that shows that the former president Squid has been drawing an almost straight line in voting intentions, gaining just two percentage points in almost a year.
The PT rose from 43% of voting intentions in September 2021 to 45% in July 2022. The president Jair Bolsonaro it has a slightly steeper line of growth, but its speed is still not enough to beat its main opponent.
According to the graph, Bolsonaro had 26% of the votes in September last year and rose to 32% in July this year, a growth of 6 percentage points. That is, growing more percentage points than Lula, but still insufficient.
Bolsonaro’s curve shows a timid growth, but the month of August could be a turning point in this trajectory. We are still at the beginning of the month, but it is already possible to see that the current president has improved his performance in important aspects.
The president’s team acts exactly in the sense that Sérgio Abranches described in his blog when he released the graph: messing with the memory of Brazilians and trying to show a better situation than what we have seen in the last four years.
“The inevitable logic of choice will be based on judgment and memory. Voters will judge the Bolsonaro government and, in this aspect, the vote will have an unshakable plebiscitary element. They will also judge the ability of former President Lula to return to office, pacify and restore the country’s conditions of progress and democracy,” wrote Sérgio Abranches.
As the column showed, populism is paying off and Bolsonaro has been getting points among the younger generation, for example, where he had a great disadvantage compared to Lula.
It is also managing to improve the perception of the economy in general, a change highly anticipated by its team.
Other data that could accelerate the president’s growth line are the information that almost half of Brazilians believe that Bolsonaro is doing what he can for the country and that there is a drop in the negative evaluation of the government in all regions of Brazil.
The president’s populist (and desperate) measures could decisively affect Bolsonaro’s polls and votes. In recent days, there has been an increase in Auxílio Brasil, a reduction in fuel prices and benefits for truck drivers, several electoral “kindnesses” that violated the legislation.
Bolsonaro’s curve may change a little. Former President Lula, who does not have the machine in his hands, will have to devise a good strategy to guarantee his victory as soon as possible, in the first round.