Silvio Crespo

If it was still not clear that savings can be a bad deal, you will see below the data I present in today’s column — and you will understand that Treasury Direct can yield up to five times more than the book, especially in the current scenario of inflation and interest going up.

This article answers a question I received on my instagram profile about how much more money an investor could earn migrating from savings to another safe investment. So, on to the data!

How much is your savings today?

Savings are currently yielding 8.75% per year, considering the current scenario, with the Selic rate at 12.75%.

But this is the nominal yield, that is, the one that does not discount for inflation. Making this discount, the real gain from savings drops to a mere 0.7% per year.

In this account, I am considering that inflation will be around 8% in 2022, as forecast by analysts consulted by the Central Bank (BC).

How much does the Selic Treasury yield?

The Treasury Selic, the most conservative Treasury Direct bond, currently yields 10.5% per year, already deducted from the Income Tax (IR).

If we also discount inflation, the real yield of the Selic Treasury is 2.3% per year. Therefore, three times more than savings.

You might still think, “Anyway, they’re both very low-yielding, so whatever.” Is not true. I will talk about this later on.

How much do other Treasury bonds yield?

Another type of Treasury Direct bond is the prefixed one. This modality currently has a gross return of up to 12.72% per year. Discounting income tax and inflation, the real net gain is 2.6%, like the Selic Treasury.

Finally, the IPCA Treasury has a gross return of 14.31%, considering an inflation of 8% per year. In this way, the real net income reaches no less than 3.9% per year, that is, 5.5 times more than savings.

Does it make a difference

Contrary to what it may seem, the difference between savings and Treasury Direct has a considerable impact on the investor’s life.

If you want to earn BRL 1,000 per month, after discounting inflation, you would need to keep BRL 1.7 million in savings.

At the Selic Treasury, you would get the same income with only R$ 457 thousand invested. In the IPCA Treasury, this value would fall to R$ 311 thousand.

For those who invest for the long term, for retirement, for example, the choice of investment can determine whether, in old age, you can afford a good health plan or not, for example.


Before finishing, I think it is important to remember that, if you are going to invest in the IPCA Treasury or the Fixed Rate Treasury, it is good to keep the investment until the maturity date. If you redeem before the deadline, you may lose money.

At the Selic Treasury, there is no such risk.

Any questions?

Do you have any questions about today’s article or about investments in general? Get in on my instagram profile and send it there. Your question may be the subject of this column in the future.

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