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Strong rise in inflation forecasts: according to private analysts it will be 90% in 2022

Every month, the Central Bank prepares the expectations index for the Argentine economy.  (Photo: Telam)

The expectations of private analysts about the Argentine economy continue to deteriorate over the months, especially with regard to the government’s ability to control price increases.

The latest Survey of Market Expectations (REM) published by the central bank (BCRA) shows a rise of 14.2 percentage points in the forecast for inflation for the end of the year, which is already at 90.2%.

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Every month, the Central Bank prepares the expectations index for the Argentine economy. (Photo: Telam)

In turn, the consultants expect the exchange rate wholesaler close this year in $167.16, although it would still be delayed compared to the prices.

Forecasts for inflation by 2023, who reached the 76.6%, namely 12 percentage points more than in the previous survey. Towards 2024, meanwhile, those who responded to the REM expect prices to rise 60% (9.8 points more than a month ago).

Below are the inflation rates that private analysts expect for the remainder of 2022:

  • Analysts project that July closed with an inflation of 7.5%, which meant an increase of 2.7 percentage points in relation to the previous survey.
  • In August, expect prices to rise 6% (1.5 percentage points above last month).
  • For September expect inflation to be cut to 5.5% (a monthly increase of 1 percentage point).
  • In october analysts expect the Consumer Price Index to mark 5.3% (a difference of 1.1 percentage points in relation to the previous REM).
  • According to forecasts, inflation would decline again in november, when would it be 5% (0.8 percentage points higher than the previous survey).
  • However, the IPC would rise again in december, when would it be 5.1% (also 0.8 percentage point above the report from early July).
The price of the dollar continues to be a source of concern for the national government.  (Photo: Adobe Stock)
The price of the dollar continues to be a source of concern for the national government. (Photo: Adobe Stock)

How much will the official dollar trade in the coming months according to private projections

In addition to the forecast of a wholesale dollar at $167.16 for next December 31, the experts consulted by the Central Bank also estimated what the value of the US currency will be in the official market during the coming months.

  • In August the wholesale exchange rate would reach $135.49 (1.80 cents more than a month ago).
  • Towards September would come to $143.55, that is, 3.56 cents above the previous calculation.
  • projection of october rose $4.54, to $150.45.
  • The forecast of november rose $6.03 and stayed at $158.21.

What is the growth expectation for 2022 according to analysts

Private sector specialists who participated in the last REM expect real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for 2022 of 3.4% (0.2 percentage points less compared to the previous REM).

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Regarding the seasonally adjusted quarterly variation of the GDP, for the second quarter of 2022 the participants of the REM estimated a up 0.5% without seasonality, which is 1.2 percentage points higher in relation to the previous survey.

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