A comparison of the electoral situation in July 2014, 2018 and 2022, according to Datafolha data, reveals something impressive: the number of undecided candidates is absurdly lower in this campaign than in the previous two. At least at this point in the three races for Palácio do Planalto.
The data is even more relevant because it relates to the questions asked in the search spontaneous, when the name of the candidates is not presented to those interviewed by the institute.
In July 2014, Datafolha showed a very high number of undecided: 49% of voters said they were in doubt about the presidential candidates. At that time the main names were Dilma Rousseff, Aécio Neves and Marina Silva.
Four years later, in July 2018, the number of undecided was a little lower – in the same month of July: 41% were in doubt about the candidates Jair Bolsonaro, Fernando Haddad, Geraldo Alckmin and Marina.
Now, in 2022, the latest Datafolha, also released in July, brings a much smaller number of undecided people, only 26%. It is about the crystallization of the vote, according to political scientists, present in a much stronger way in this election. And, with less undecided, there is also less chance of a change in the picture.
One reason, of course, is the fact that the two leaders are well known – by more than 90% of voters. dispute Squid, a former president who ruled the country for eight years, and an incumbent president seeking re-election. There has never been a dispute like this in the history of contemporary Brazilian presidentialism.