The three polls released this week indicate that the re-election campaign of Jair Bolsonaro lost his breath. This Friday, the 13th, PoderData announced that the government’s assessment has worsened. The difference between those who approve and disapprove of the Bolsonaro administration has risen from 16 to 20 percentage points in the last two weeks. The bad mood with the government even reached evangelicals, the main pro-reelection segment: approval dropped from 55% to 47% and disapproval rose from 41% to 44%.
In PoderData, Lula’s advantage over Bolsonaro is smaller than in other polls, but it fluctuated upwards. Squid has 42%, 2 percentage points more, over 35% of Bolsonaro, which was stable. since leaving Sergio Moro of the presidential race, Bolsonaro had been growing steadily. The transfer of votes, apparently, is over.
The stable scenario was also recorded by the Ipespe survey, released on Friday, with Bolsonaro’s oscillations in the margin of error. By Ipespe, in the first round Lula beats Bolsonaro by 44% to 32%. In the second, 54% to 35%. There is an association between Bolsonaro’s difficulties in continuing to grow in polls and the state of the economy. 62% of Brazilians think the economy is on the wrong track and 63% think prices will continue to rise in the coming months. Asked about the priorities of the next president, 49% of respondents mentioned economic issues (employment, inflation and misery).
In the Genial/Quaest poll, released on Wednesday (10/05), 58% of Brazilians think that the current president does not deserve a second term and 59% reject voting for Bolsonaro. In the Genial/Quaest scenario, Lula has 46% of voting intentions in the first round against 44% of opponents combined. In the scenario with eight candidates, Bolsonaro comes in second place with 29% of voting intentions, followed by Ciro Gomes with 7%.