Mariano Gorodisch:

Despite the fact that some indicators related to economic activity and unemployment are relatively good, one of the economic fronts that most worries the Government is inflation. The next IPC data will be the hardest of the administration of President Alberto Fernández, when on Thursday, August 11, the Indec will release the official data. To this is added August, which will have a drag from the previous month and new increases.
July’s price increase would be the biggest monthly index of the year. It will be around 7%, and some consultants give it a floor of 8%.

The resignation of former Economy Minister Martín Guzmán triggered turbulence in the markets and a spike in the dollar. “Guzmán’s departure generated a discreet jump in the prices of the economy, which is not only due to the uncertainty generated by his departure, but also to the consolidation of a process that was conceived within his management, Agustín explained to PROFILE Berasategui, an economist at the ACM consulting firm.

And he added: “On the one hand, we have the preventive price marking, with which at first it was tried to protect the income of different sectors on the supply side. On the other, we have that lags can be registered, especially in terms of sectors that saw problems in determining sales prices, due to a lack of information on replacement prices.”

Massa admitted that the situation is “complex” in his meeting with Alberto F.

The CPI of the Libertad y Progreso Foundation (LyP) for July showed an advance of 8% per month, which registers the highest monthly rise since April 2022. Accumulated inflation reaches 47%, and this is the highest accumulated inflation in first seven months since 1991, according to the foundation.

While the C&T retail price survey for GBA showed a monthly increase of 7.6% in July. The twelve-month variation climbed to 69.2% for this consultancy. “The highest figure for July since April 2002, immediately after the exit from convertibility; It even exceeded the 7.2% that we had surveyed in April 2016, when strong adjustments were implemented in public services during the Macri administration, although this data is not in the official series, because the CPI estimate had not yet been restarted. , explained María Castiglioni, an economist at the C&T consulting firm.

Inflation – PHOTO: TÉLAM

For this consultant, the Leisure category was the one with the greatest increase due to the seasonal peak that tourism had for the winter holidays. Education was the second with the highest increase due to increases authorized for private schools. While the Clothing sector also had an unusual behavior by increasing almost 10%. Food and beverages rose 5%, less than the average, but with considerable disparity in its components.

For its part, the IPC-GBA of Ecolatina accelerated to 7.5% in July. The chapters with the greatest evolution were: Leisure (+10.9%), Home equipment and maintenance (+10.8%), driven by marked rises in durable goods for the home and furniture; and Transport and communications, which grew by 10.7%. In Food and beverages, the greatest variations were registered in Alcoholic beverages (+10.3%), Food and beverages consumed outside the home (+18%), Eggs (+16.9%), Oils (+12.1% ) and Noodles (8.1%). On the contrary, the chapters that had the least variation were Fruits (-1.2%) and Meats (+3%).

August increases in groups, prepaid and rates add more pressure

“After Guzmán’s resignation, the uncertainty in the face of uncertain replacement costs generated by the rise in financial dollars was not free in terms of prices. Unlike other periods, the rise in parallel dollars worked as a clear transmission mechanism for inflationary dynamics”, said Agostina Myronec, from Ecolatina.

For the month of August, in addition to the drag of the inflationary inertia of July, increases in rents of around 61% were added for those who renewed their contracts. To that was added the increase in expenses, between 6 and 7 percent. The prepaid also suffered a rise of 11.34% and the increase of 40% of the group in the AMBA, so that the minimum ticket cost $ 25.20. “With recent events, the nominal outlook has worsened markedly. Even estimating a deceleration in the last months of the year, to park around 5% per month, we project an inflation that will be around 90% at the end of the year”, concluded the economist.

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