The measures announced by the Government last week did not convince the market and no major changes are expected in the coming days. The high volatility will once again be the protagonist of the local square. The redefinition of the goals of the agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the bond auction in pesos on June 28 will also be key.
In international markets, the strong Federal Reserve rate hike (FED) of the United States project more shakes in the main squares of the world and could lead to new falls in the cryptocurrencies.
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Analysts consulted by TN coincided in the low predictability generate noise in the financial plaza local and that will maintain certain movements in a new short week, after the June 20 holiday.
To bring calm to the market, the Minister of Economy, Martin Guzmansaid that the announced measures were “fully coordinated” with the head of the Central Bank, Miguel Pesce“for Argentina to have a fastest reserve accumulation path”.
“We have marked an absolute commitment to strengthening the public debt market in pesosthat we rebuilt it so that in Argentina there is first more financing capacity of the public sector, and healthier”, assured the minister.
The government’s measures did not convince the market
For Lucas Garayeconomic analyst at Echo Go, as “this week begins to define what about the IMF goals”, all the eyes of the market will be attentive to what happens. “It will be a matter important”, he warned.
Along the same lines, he considered that “the daily data on accumulation of reserves and how many pesos does the Treasury ask the Central Bank for transitory advances”.
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“The (non) fulfillment of the fiscal goal will be known in mid-July. In that sense, where the government is expected to miss targets we can see some volatility”, he anticipated.
In this regard, he said that “the measures economic data announced on Thursday result insufficient to calm a market that is in a delicate situation” and that “in this context, the week that begins now hardly breathe”.
“The market seems to be getting more impatient,” evaluated in the same way Ecolatina in your latest report.
Guido Lawrenceeconomist at LCGalso agreed that “in the local market a difficult week aheadwaiting for how the tender will turn out” on June 28, when almost $600,000 million expire.
“With the intervention of the Central Bank, the Argentine titles in pesos could be sustained, but the dollar debt It is already falling and there is more possibility of a rise than of continuing to fall, but hardly rebound“, I consider.
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Meanwhile, for Joel Lupieriof epic consultants, “it is possible that this week we will see a some recovery in the price of bonds and equities”. “The falls and the sell off it has been too important not to wait at least one series of speculative purchases that give some support to the price”, he detailed.
Dollar on the rise, with an eye on bonds in pesos
The Dolar blue marked a strong rally at the start of last week, but flattened slightly at the close. For Lupieri, “at the local level what is exclusive will be seen in the evolution of the dollar after the new increases in the rates of the BCRA”.
“Towards the end of the month, liquidity drops and there is probably less demand volumeboth in the official market and in stock dollars”, he assessed.
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For Garay, “after what happened with the CER bonds and the financial gap, it will probably be seen that do not decompress both the peso curve and the financial dollars”. Meanwhile, Lorenzo projected that if “the perception that domestic titles do not rebound is maintained, the dollar will continue its bullish streak”.
According to Ecolatina“the agreement with the IMF reveals the fragility of the financial scheme of the Government: with an external market virtually closed, the imposition of a limit on monetary assistance in the framework of a gradual fiscal consolidation leads to the fulfillment of the financial program resting excessively on the debt market in pesosleaving it vulnerable before episodes of uncertainty like the ones that happened last week.
Cryptocurrencies do not find their floor and the FED rate hike does not help
The price of cryptocurrencies accumulate several weeks of free fall and the rise in rates by the FED does not help to change the trend, according to the analysts consulted by TN.
Lupieri said that “the rise in rates in the United States seems to continue to hit in the minds of cryptocurrency buyers”, while for Lorenzo this situation makes “difficult for there to be a strong recovery.”
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However, he analyzed that crypto “is a very difficult market to predict”, although “possibly when you find certain minimums you will be able to bounce”.