The market estimates that this year's inflation will be greater than 90%

The market is already waiting for this 2022 an annual inflation of 90.2%. That is what emerges from the Market Expectations Survey (REM) prepared by the Central Bank (BCRA), which collected the forecast of analysts at the end of July, who this time placed their estimates 14.2 percentage points above the survey earlier, held in June.

Likewise, the participants of the REM revised the forecasts of inflation for 2023, placing it at 76.6% yoy (12.0 pp more than the previous REM) and by 2024 at 60.0% yoy. (9.8 pp higher than the previous survey). Regarding core inflation, those who participated in the REM forecast that it would reach 90.5% yoy at the end of 2022 (13.7 pp higher than the last survey).

Regarding the price of the dollar, the analysts consulted corrected their projections of the nominal exchange rate made in June: now they expect the exchange rate to reach $167.16 per dollar in December 2022. Those who most accurately forecast this variable with short-term horizons projected that the average nominal exchange rate for December 2022 would be $167.57/US$.

In addition, they projected the gross domestic product (GDP) will grow 3.4% real this year (0.2 pp more than in the previous REM). And as for the seasonally adjusted quarterly variation of the GDP, for the second quarter of 2022, they estimated a growth of 0.5% se, which is 1.2 pp higher in relation to the previous survey (-0.7% se) .

Leave a Reply