Nearly seven million people left Ukraine due to Russian invasion

The European Central Bank estimates, in a study published this Monday, that 25% to 55% of Ukrainian refugees of working age will participate in the workforce in the eurozone, and may represent another 300,000 to 1.3 million workers.

In an article published this Monday by the ECB in the economic bulletin on “the impact of the influx of Ukrainian refugees on the eurozone’s workforce”, the central bank calculates that, taking into account “previous waves of refugees and adapting it to the current, a labor force participation rate is expected [da zona euro] in the medium term between 25% and 55% for refugees of working age”.

At a time when almost seven million people left Ukraine due to the Russian invasion, a number that could reach 10 million, the ECB predicts that more than half of Ukrainian refugees will be able to participate in the eurozone workforce, with the extreme The lower end of that range (25%) is based on “the level of integration seen for previous refugees after two years in the host country, with an upward adjustment to reflect Ukraine’s cultural proximity and the impact of rapid EU political action”, while the maximum percentage (55%) “reflects recent estimates of the participation rate of women of working age who migrated from outside the EU at 27 to the eurozone”.

Women and children represent the vast majority of these migrants and, in these calculations, the ECB also took into account the future entry into the eurozone of men who stayed in the country to fight.

“Globally, the influx of Ukrainian refugees is expected to lead to a gradual increase in the size of the eurozone workforce”, specifies the document, produced by ECB economist Vasco Botelho.

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