The European Central Bank estimates, in a study published this Monday, that 25% to 55% of Ukrainian refugees of working age will participate in the workforce in the eurozone, and may represent another 300,000 to 1.3 million workers.
In an article published this Monday by the ECB in the economic bulletin on “the impact of the influx of Ukrainian refugees on the eurozone’s workforce”, the central bank calculates that, taking into account “previous waves of refugees and adapting it to the current, a labor force participation rate is expected [da zona euro] in the medium term between 25% and 55% for refugees of working age”.
At a time when almost seven million people left Ukraine due to the Russian invasion, a number that could reach 10 million, the ECB predicts that more than half of Ukrainian refugees will be able to participate in the eurozone workforce, with the extreme The lower end of that range (25%) is based on “the level of integration seen for previous refugees after two years in the host country, with an upward adjustment to reflect Ukraine’s cultural proximity and the impact of rapid EU political action”, while the maximum percentage (55%) “reflects recent estimates of the participation rate of women of working age who migrated from outside the EU at 27 to the eurozone”.
Women and children represent the vast majority of these migrants and, in these calculations, the ECB also took into account the future entry into the eurozone of men who stayed in the country to fight.
“Globally, the influx of Ukrainian refugees is expected to lead to a gradual increase in the size of the eurozone workforce”, specifies the document, produced by ECB economist Vasco Botelho.
Specifically, these migrants could represent an increase between 0.2% and 0.8% in the working population of the euro area in the medium term, which according to the ECB article “corresponds to an increase between 0.3 and 0.3 1.3 million in the size of the workforce”, that is, of the total number of people who are available to work in the single currency space.
The ECB stresses that the “increase in the labor supply resulting from the influx of Ukrainian refugees could slightly alleviate the constraint on the eurozone labor market”.
Given the waves of Ukrainian migration in recent years, even before the Russian invasion of the country this year, around 75% of all Ukrainian refugees currently live in the eurozone.
“There is an important Ukrainian community already living in the eurozone and the recent experiences of other refugees combined with the fact that eurozone countries have the economic means to receive refugees could encourage even more Ukrainian refugees to settle in the eurozone over the course of of time”, but this proportion “will depend on the duration and severity of the war”, the ECB adds.
The publication comes on the day that marks World Refugee Day and almost four months after Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine.
Russia launched a military offensive in Ukraine on February 24 that has killed more than 4,000 civilians, according to the UN, which warns that the real number is likely to be much higher.
The military offensive caused more than eight million people to flee, according to the latest UN figures.
The Russian invasion was condemned by the international community in general, which responded by sending weapons to Ukraine and reinforcing economic and political sanctions on Moscow.
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