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The president of the Scientific Council of Ipespe, Antonio Lavareda, participated in the UOL News today and assured that XP Investimentos was not aware of the result of the last electoral survey contracted with Instituto Ipespe, and that its publication was canceled on Wednesday (8).

Lavareda also explained that, due to an internal matter at the company, the results are only sent to the contractor after the stock exchange closes on Thursdays.

“When XP determined the cancellation of registration, it had not yet received the report from Ipespe, so it did not know the result of the research. The determination of cancellation was made on Wednesday afternoon, and according to the regulation of the contracting and XP only receives the result of each search after the closing of the Stock Exchange on Thursdays, it is a company compliance rule. The suspension had nothing to do with results”, he said during the UOL News Afternoon.

Lavareda also said that the real reason for canceling the registration of the research was due to a change in the contractor. The surveys would be contracted by InfoMoney, an arm of XP, but the company ended up reversing the decision.

“The week before the survey, XP decided to change the contracting party for this product, replacing InfoMoney. But during the week they came to the conclusion that this would not be interesting, and to correct this position that they thought was wrong, they suspended the registration of the survey. was not the best solution and the consequence was the great reaction of the public”.

Ipespe denies pressure for cancellation

The Ipespe member also rejected the possibility that the cancellation of the publication of the research has anything to do with the fact that the president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) to be behind the former president of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) in voting intentions. He reinforced that this scenario has already been outlined since the surveys carried out in 2021.

“Since last year, all the polls have been in that direction, so I don’t believe that was the reason (Bolsonaro in a non-leadership situation), it wouldn’t make sense.”

After the decision to unregister and release the latest survey, XP also canceled the release of weekly surveys. Lavareda explained that they will be monthly. “In a very polarized election like ours, XP decided to reduce the number of polls that will be published. Instead of weekly polls, we will have a monthly poll with 2,000 respondents. (…) the next poll is scheduled for the end of June and the new schedule that will be established is being discussed”.

In relation to the canceled poll, he stated that its disclosure is made impossible by the regulation of the TSE (Superior Electoral Court). All research requires registration with the agency to be released and, as of the cancellation of that registration on Wednesday, any release of data would be illegal and would be breaking the law.

During the interview, Lavareda also admitted that Ipespe is under pressure from some Bolsonaro supporters, but denied that XP exerts any kind of pressure on the results of commissioned surveys.

“The pressure (which Ipespe suffered) came from more radical followers of the president and from robots that are widely used in these operations on the Internet, but this does not change the Institute’s practice or routine. As for the pressures suffered by XP, I am not the best person to report them because I don’t know them, but it’s natural that there was. (…) there was no pressure from XP for Ipespe and it couldn’t even be vocalized, because we wouldn’t even admit the beginning of a dialogue in this situation. Ipespe’s only concern is technical rigor”.

Research credibility

Lavareda was also asked during his participation in the UOL News about the risk of future surveys being discredited after the last one is cancelled. He stated that credibility is assessed by the responsible institute and guaranteed that all the transparency necessary for the dissemination of research will continue to be a characteristic of Ipespe.

“What gives credibility to research is the institute that carries it out, and not the contracting party. The contracting party is important because it constitutes a dissemination platform, but credibility is associated with the institute. I assure you that the necessary technical competence will continue to be our characteristic” .

At the end of his participation in the program, the president of the Scientific Council of Ipespe also criticized the very politicians who try to invalidate the results of the research.

“When politicians discredit research and scientific bases, it is necessary to remember that some even discredited the vaccine, something much more serious. This has to do with an anti-scientific posture and we only have to regret that there are these obscurantist postures”, he concluded.

Check out the UOL News Afternoon this Friday (10):

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