When can Putin launch the atomic bomb?

Interestingly, just under Khrushchev’s party secretariat, the Crimean peninsula, which was then annexed by the Russians in 2014, officially arrived in Ukraine, virtually stabilizing military tensions in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine. Then, eight years later, war broke out just for the “liberation” of the Russian-speaking people living in the two self-proclaimed people’s republics. Well, of course, for the deactivation of Ukraine. And the story, thought to be a lightning war, is increasingly beginning to resemble a stuck invasion that can take a very long time.

How disturbed Europeans are that they have to watch helplessly as a state imagined to be in a position of great power can pack a European state with impunity, especially so that, if we think about it, a war to gain territory in World War II. it hasn’t been on the continent since World War II, well, nothing more characterizes this European frustration than what the Italian Prime Minister said in Washington this week. Mario Draghi was greeted in the Oval Office by President Joe Biden and as they stood in front of a line of journalists with a heartfelt smile, the Italian politician said unexpectedly:

You know, Mr President, in Italy and in Europe in general, we want us to somehow put an end to this violence, massacre and peace-building. At the very least, there would be a ceasefire so that meaningful peace talks can begin. That’s what people want, and we, we leaders, need to think about it. “

Draghi declared all this after the US disbursed another major military aid to Ukraine. The $ 40 billion package was approved by Congress, so there is no obstacle for Washington to send additional tank and anti-aircraft missiles, radars, combat drones and artillery to the Ukrainians. This kind of aggressive Western help, which wants to stop the Russians at all costs, the complete lack of diplomatic negotiations, can all push the Russian leader to a corner and then even act unpredictably.

What does the American spy chief say?

This week, the relevant congressional committee heard Avril Haines, head of U.S. intelligence. The spy boss said

according to specialist services, there is currently no imminent threat that Putin would want to use his nuclear weapons. ”

That sounds reassuring, although many high-ranking American politicians have previously expressed concern that if Putin might want to avoid the shameful shame of losing the war, he would not hesitate to resort to nuclear weapons. Nothing proves his will and determination at all costs better than the cities destroyed to the ground in the Chechen wars, the brutal attacks on Syrian civilians, or the unwarranted destruction of Ukraine, villages, suburbs, schools, hospitals, railway stations, not to mention the occupation of his troops. war crimes in the territories.

The Russian leader wants to upset the fears of the West most by mentioning nuclear weapons. Already in the first week of the war, he ordered the deployment of Russian nuclear deterrence forces – whatever that means. Because it is certain land units, and Russian submarines equipped with intercontinental ballistic nuclear missiles have been virtually on standby in recent years.

That’s it Independent The experts who spoke out explained this by saying that a different protocol is likely to apply to nuclear-equipped units in peacetime than in wartime, although no one in the Russian government media talks about war, only about a “special military operation.”

Putin is not yet winking at the exit

The aforementioned US spy chief also spoke at the committee hearing that he believes preparations should be made for a protracted war, because Putin, while occupying the breakaway people’s republics, continues to lose sight of his goals beyond the Donetsk Basin and will do everything in his power to achieve them. Avril Haines sees how things are going now, and how they could turn out if President Putin realizes he could lose in Ukraine, dramatic steps could follow.

It can declare a state of war, a statarian, convert some of the industrial sectors to produce for the military economy, or free up any resources it deems necessary to continue the war. If Putin finally maneuvers himself into such a corner, it will be difficult to move out of it for two reasons.

On the one hand, even before the war, the Russian president rejected any diplomatic approach, warning not to ignite the conflict. However, now his personal prestige, his political position, his role and Russia’s international reputation are at stake. The other reason why diplomatic soft shifts are unlikely to begin now is the aggressive Western attitude. In other words, the fact that President Zelensky, filled with the most modern weapons, may have the right to win the war has, after all, attacked Ukraine and not the other way around, CNN.

The worst case scenario in the war

Patricia Lewis, director of the international think tank at the British think tank, Chatham House, says it is impossible to say whether Putin, in any situation, would be willing to issue an order for a nuclear attack. According to Lewis

of course he wants to scare us. I think the Russians have worked hard and a lot to make the West more afraid of the Russian atom today than the Russians are afraid of the Western nuclear means. “

He added that according to Western military doctrines, a nuclear retaliation can be ordered against conventional forces and armaments, but only as a last resort. If Russia decides to attack one of its NATO allies, it can also be sure that there will be no immediate response. If the Russian attack were carried out with a nuclear weapon, a conflict would be unleashed that would be several times the size of World War II. world war.

Nuclear attack can be carried out with two types of weapons, strategies or tactics. The tactical atomic bomb would be used more on battlefields, these weapons with a smaller range and less destructive power. However, they do not lag behind the strategies in any way. It is assumed that the Russians would use a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine, because there the Ukrainian troops will not face the fighting with the Russians advancing in the columns or in the array. Because there are fewer of them and they defend themselves, they attack the enemy in much smaller units, carrying out sabotage actions, kamikaze actions against them.

At the same time, as mentioned by security policy expert Péter Táll in the Index Talker, the activities of Ukrainian partisans in the areas of eastern Ukraine occupied and controlled by the Russians in February are becoming more and more extensive.

Strategic nuclear weapons, as its name suggests, would be used far away, against targets inside an enemy country. These can be aimed at long-range intercontinental ballistic missiles or dropped over targets mounted on heavy bombers. Missiles can carry multiple warheads that separate above the target and are able to attack individual targets. A war on strategic nuclear weapons would surely bring the end of the world to death, tens of millions of people and an incredibly rapid climate change.

The number of victims also depends, depending on the population density of the area in which the nuclear weapon is intended. They modeled what would happen if a bomb half the size of a bomb exploded over Manhattan as it was dropped on Hiroshima. As a result, more than 200,000 people would die immediately and the number of wounded would reach 300,000. The number of wounded would certainly be increased by radiation exposure to the area, as someone may not be injured a little further away from the epicenter, but may be exposed to radiation.

Experts from the American Association of Scientists have been regularly analyzing and collecting data on warheads held by nuclear powers since 1987. An update on Russian nuclear weapons was recently released. According to this, about 4,477 warheads are known for immediate deployment, of which 1,588 are strategic. There are also 977 strategic and 1912 non-strategic warhead warehouses.

Current sets of additional nuclear powers:

  • USA 5428 warheads
  • China 350 warheads
  • France 290 warheads
  • United Kingdom 225 warheads
  • Pakistan 165 warheads
  • India 160 warheads
  • Israel 90 warheads
  • North Korea 20 warheads

The data is also included in the current publication of the American Association of Scientists.

Our Wednesday-minute coverage of the Russian-Ukrainian war you can read it here.

(Cover image: Vladimir Putin on May 9, 2022. Photo: Dimitar DILKOFF / AFP)

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