Safe carnival requires 80% collective immunity, according to researchers

With the pandemic situation undergoing changes, due to mass vaccination in Brazil, the hope of the 2022 carnival comes to light. With this in mind, researchers from the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz) and the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) sent a proposal to the president of the Special Committee on Carnival of the City Council of Rio, Tarcísio Motta, for a carnival insurance in 2022.

“Since carnival is an event that receives many tourists in the city, we need to keep 80% of the vaccinations in the state and in the country as well”, says Tarcísio Motta. Vaccination, in this case, means two doses of the immunizing agent, or a single dose, in the case of Janssen.

The researchers reinforce that it is necessary to establish the same percentage for the city, the state and the country, because Rio de Janeiro is the center of carnival in Brazil and receives many people from other locations. For them, the ideal is to achieve collective immunity of 80%.

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To reach this conclusion, the researchers made a calculation with the contamination rate and the transmission rate: one person can change from covid-19 to another five and even nine. It is estimated that, with the advance of vaccination, it will be possible to reach this 80% by Carnival.

(Image: DisobeyArtPhotography/envato)

Researchers’ proposal

The proposal submitted to Rio’s expert committee involves a weekly moving average of less than 110 cases (which means 1.63 cases per 100,000 inhabitants) with the shortest time and the least number of people to ensure access to the wards and units of ICU.

The researchers also point out that the city’s contagion rate must be below 1 and, preferably, around 0.5, a number that must be sustained for a minimum period of seven days. From the perspective of those involved, these indicators are not difficult to achieve.

In Motta’s words, this is likely to happen, considering the constant improvement in the indicators. The president of the Special Committee on Carnival of the City Council of Rio has hopes for a happy and safe carnival. Vaccination coverage in the city of Rio is currently at almost 60%, and the estimate is that in November, it will reach 65%, and that, in December, it will reach 80%.

The report in favor of a safe carnival also indicates measures such as the requirement for a vaccination passport in closed spaces, such as the Sambódromo, clubs, bars and party houses, in addition to air and land border control, especially with the requirement for vaccination.

Source: Brazil Agency

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