The traffic light for December, with data as of November 2021, does not show large significant changes compared to the equivalent of October, but the negative effects on the monitoring variables are consolidated, where the red ones grow, the yellow ones decrease and the green ones do not grow significantly.

The climate and the drought darken the productive perspectives of the regions. According to the survey “Traffic light of Regional Economies”, which Coninagro carried out last December, of 19 regional economies, in 13 of them, the prices received do not reach the accumulated interannual inflation, which was almost 51%.

“The December traffic light, with data to November 2021, It does not show large significant changes with respect to the October equivalent, but the negative effects on the monitoring variables are consolidated. The red ones grow, the yellow ones are reduced and the green ones do not grow significantly”, the document pointed out.

In this sense, there are 10 activities in red (in crisis or with signs of crisis) which are sweet citrus, rice, poultry, cattle, vegetables, milk, peanuts, sheep, potatoes, and pears and apples. While, the two sectors listed in yellow, meaning they have a warning status, are beekeeping and tobacco. While green, that is, they have a level of prosperity and growth, there are cotton, forestry, grains, cassava, pork, yerba mate, and wine and must.

According to the report, the estimates of producer prices measured at current prices, which refer to November, showed a lot of heterogeneity in ups and downs. In 13 activities, prices do not reach accumulated year-on-year inflation.

The traffic light for December, with data as of November 2021, does not show large significant changes compared to the equivalent of October, but the negative effects on the monitoring variables are consolidated, where the red ones grow, the yellow ones decrease and the green ones do not grow significantly.

“In terms of costs, 15 of the 19 activities showed year-on-year increases higher than their own prices, which raises an alarm signal in the medium term. On a simple average, costs show a year-on-year increase of 73% in November, while prices only 47%”, the document details.

In relation to production volumes and surfaces: the entity observed “meager productive prospects since isolated negative events occurred due to the weather.” In this context, it is estimated that at later traffic lights this variable will tend to red due to the negative impact on expected yields due to the drought. There are five activities that show year-on-year falls in production estimates, while eight of them show growth compared to the previous campaign and the rest are stable.

Manfredo Seifert, counselor of the entity for Missions, explained why that productive economy shows signs of recovery. “If we compare this forestry dynamic with that of the last ten years, we can see that we had problems with demand and marketing, but Fortunately, in the last year and a half, the external market has expanded and this has generated dynamism in the province, motorizing labor and giving producers a balm of spirit, since it is an activity in which they invest 15 to 20 years”, commented the leader.

“In the last year, the forestry sector has been breathing different airs, there is another spirit. This is because the demand for forest products has improved, coupled with the forester’s primary products. However, there is a significant oversupply of raw material that will try to be balanced by the limited capacity of the industries to process this wood. and investments to reverse this situation are not in sight in the short or medium term. Another issue that has occupied us in recent months and It keeps us on alert because of the fires, we are trying to mitigate all kinds of outbreaks so that they do not spread, which, exacerbated by the water deficit and high temperatures, make the situation more complex,” Seifert added.

As for the cultivation of manioc, said prices continue to follow inflation and there is good demand from the domestic market. “We have little primary production because in the spring of 2020 what was harvested in 2021 was sown. This did not allow the stock to be raised due to the water deficit and damaged the crop. and in this season the same thing happens because of the lack of water, which will cause that in the next campaign, which begins between February and March, there will be little raw material to process in the industries”, He said.

“We are entering a year where we will not be able to replenish the stock of cassava starch, and the demand will be greater than the supply of raw material, This will cause an improvement in producer prices, but it will have a negative effect on the markets. In Brazil and Paraguay there is a similar situation, that is to say that in the whole region there is a drop in raw material”, added.

On the situation of citrus cultivation in Corrientes, Nicholas Carlino, counselor for that province, indicated that “citrus production returned to reality.” In this sense, he explained that in this activity there are cycles and every 8/10 years you get a very good one.

“In our case, that was last year, since there was no supply of fruit, prices went up and that allows you to even out the balance a little bit. Lately that cycle is taking much longer. This year, a producer is charging $6 for oranges per kilo of fruit and with those numbers the whole picture is complicated. With the numbers as they are, the producer would have to be receiving between $18 to $20 per kilo, especially for the costs and supplies that are dollarized,” Indian.

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