The lights come on, music from violins, cellos and trombones. Grand Albert announced with cape, galley and four kilos less: it has been remastered. The stage is flooded with doves and rabbits, the emulate of Houdini and Copperfield opens his arms, extends his black cloak and, solemnly, exclaims: “We already won”. Dracula fiction too: we suck the blood of the IMF. It is a new version of the last election, when the President assumed at night that he had triumphed over the opposition. In this new case, the circus repetition is awaited for the moment when an agreement with the international organization is closed, if it can this next month, since time has become a rival with pressing deadlines. The bullet man for that magic pass is the minister Guzmán, his partner, just the sloth who spends the most time hanging from the branches, as demonstrated also in the past negotiation with foreign creditors. The new tricks and scenography, sworn corrections in the economy and the recommended diet of the president, do not seem to tempt the market: in certain registers, the Argentina is equal to or worse than 20 years ago years, when he went through the dramatic crisis of the eviction of Fernando de la Rúa, now with more inflation and more unemployment, the same country risk (1,800 points) and the flight of depreciated assets in a deposition without limits. Until the bonds with foreign legislation are melted, there is more than one who does not believe in the illusion that the President intends to infuse with the items he buys in the magic window of an advisor.
If one sticks to the rosary of Grand Alberto, details are lacking for the IMF accept multi-year plan that stabilizes the economy and allows the manufacture of dollars with exports. It seems that the operators have contrary information: in their escape they warn that the IMF does not consent to certain claims (it has already rejected as obvious the extension of deadlines for payments and the reduction of the additional ones for not complying in a timely manner) and that, in the government, the division between the President and the Vice. In the worst case, for them, if the decline stops and the government inspires confidence, in the future they will go back to buying bonds or stocks at ridiculous prices. As long as Fu Manchu’s wand works miracles. For now, they also estimate that the government could be caught by a local business suggestion, which admits a certain advantage in do not adjust so that inflation itself liquefies part of public spending. Shortcuts, such as not recognizing the incidence of country risk in instability, perhaps the most characteristic sign of the time to turn De la Rúa. Today they associate it with a certain mischievous statement by Perón on the dollar and update it as corrected: When did someone see a country risk? The general could have said so.
Plaza de Alberto: from infantilism to foolishness
The inevitable comparison with the critical episodes of two decades ago is as attractive as the look of the serpent on the bird that is going to be devoured. Almost a political book to write about this circular reiteration, a luck of democratic coup within democracy. In those days, the suburban mayors promoted the presidential dismissal, the opposite of today; the two strong men in politics (Duhalde and Alfonsín were against the Casa Rosada) gave air to the protests, the economy and the social were shaking. As a minor example of what was happening, it is enough to remember that the Alfonsinista Leopoldo Moreau turned on a sector of the UCR to violate the measures of Ricardo López Murphy first and then Domingo Cavallo as soon as he took office. Curiously, Moreau has already changed parties and is next to Cristina de Kirchner as a confidant, that silent lady who today accredits muteness by strategy or because she does not know what to say. Also, it must be recognized, Cristina must have dedicated herself to the process of your child’s health Maximum, who had been admitted to the Italian for three days due to renal colic. Meanwhile, he looks askance at the demonstrations attributed to the Grand Alberto, who swears to have cut the umbilical cord with his teacher and does not retain the best bond due to unfulfilled promises. Like those badly matched marriages in which threats even to leave the home meet. In general, most do not go beyond those statements.
As the iceberg is closer, they say it has the couple’s discussion suspended, only the latent state of war and minimal dialogue to avoid more scandals in the family. If, for example, Cristina demands changes in the cabinet and Alberto refuses, that final transaction will remain until after the negotiation with the IMF. Today I am not asking for anything, says Nestor’s widow to the joy of Kulfas and Beliz, perhaps waiting for an arrangement that will allow for the budgeting economic recovery to be shared – as some of his faithful believe – and not condemn her to saving to reduce the deficit. Another story. But that number of the deficit is what needs to be buckled with the IMF for next year, also the way to achieve it. It is not the only thing: there is some commitment to reduce the exchange gap, a perverse detour for any economy. As it is corrected with exchange devaluation, according to the agency, the instrument is debated: the government aspires to avoid a 30% blow, it wants to preserve the current progressive system to equate it in any case to inflation. About rates, not to mention. For now. Grand Alberto and his minister envision other measures, in their future presentation act, that will allow them to predict sustainable growth. Or sustainable. It does not matter. At least for the mayors who met with Kicillof to share hours ago how the district chiefs will be re-elected despite the law that prevents them. A biblical task, superior to the arrangement with the Fund, so vital for Alberto and Cristina. It is not going to be that they turn around and proceed like 20 years ago with De la Rúa.
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