the rise in contamination is still accelerating

The daily number of coronavirus contaminations in Belgium continues to increase: with 15,548 cases detected per day between 13 and 19 November, the update of the table of Sciensano reveals a 54% increase of this average compared to the previous week, a significant acceleration.

Two caveats to this observation, however:

  • The rate of this increase is a bit forced, because we compare a “normal” week with a week which included the public holiday of November 11th. The “real” increase is probably around 40%.
  • We have never tested so much that right now. We broke a new record last Friday with 131,788 tests carried out in 24 hours on November 19. But it is not just because we test more that we detect more cases: the positivity rate continues to climb, it is now 15,4% (and even 23,3% among 0-9 year olds), a sign that the real number of contaminations continues to be underestimated: testing / tracing can no longer follow.

It is now among 20-39 year olds that we detect the most cases and that the increase is the most important.

The increase in admissions seems to be slowing down very slightly. But it goes on at a rate of almost 20% per week while the situation of hospitals is already very delicate, many already having to postpone non-urgent operations.

3289 patients diagnosed with Covid are now treated in Belgian hospitals, including no less than 654 patients treated in intensive care. If admissions continued at this rate, we would wait the most pessimistic forecasts from experts with nearly 1,200 Covid beds occupied in these units in mid-December.

The slight slowdown in the increase could however be confirmed in connection with the “boosters” administration campaign which is continuing at a high rate (more than a million have been delivered already, i.e. around 40% of those over 65), and could decrease the number of severe cases. But if contaminations continue to increase, a part of them may still end in new hospitalizations, the vaccine being effective, but not 100%.

In the meantime, the number of deaths also continues to increase: 33 people died on average each day from Covid in our country.

The consolidated figures in Sciensano’s table

Note: these figures are taken from updated data published by Sciensano in open data and put in table form here.

Cases detected¹ : between 11/13 and 11/19, 15.448 new coronavirus infections were detected on average every day. It is an increase of 54% compared to the previous week.

Tests : between 11/13 and 11/19, an average of 103.722 tests were performed daily.

Admissions : they amount on average to 280 between 11/16 and 11/22. It is an increase of 19% compared to the previous week.

►►► Coronavirus in Belgium: new record of contaminations, the peak in intensive care expected for the end of November or mid-December

Hospitalized people² : 3289 patients are currently hospitalized in connection with Covid-19, including 654 patients treated in intensive care.

Positivity rate³ : based on the test results obtained between 11/13 and 11/19, it is 15,4%.

Reproduction rate : calculated on the basis of changes in admissions, the Rt of the coronavirus today stands at 1,12. When it is greater than 1, it means that the transmission of the virus is accelerating.

Death : between 11/13 and 11/19, 33,7 people have died from the virus on average. Since the start of the epidemic, 26,669 people have died from the coronavirus.

¹ The cases detected are the number of patients for whom a positive test has confirmed the presence of the virus. The date that is considered is the date of the diagnosis, not the test result. Data is considered consolidated after 4 days. The number of cases may depend in part on the testing strategy: if we test more systematically, we also detect more cases.

² Hospitalized patients include patients who have already been hospitalized for another reason and who have tested positive.

³ The positivity rate is the number of positive tests compared to the number of tests performed. The same person can be tested several times. It also depends on the testing strategy: if we do not test enough, the positivity rate will be higher.

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