What the first volume of lessons for an electoral campaign teaches is underway, especially if it was lost and if those who lost control the State. Distribute money, even if the money comes from an uncontrolled issuance of spurious pesos. Each appearance of the President since the ungrateful Sunday was to announce the delivery of money to different social sectors. It is also the only point in common he has with his powerful vice president. All the rest is discord, competition, and reckoning. The fundamental disagreement between them refers to the moment when it will be opportune to change the cabinet from Alberto Fernandez. Cristina Kirchner I would like never to see the Chief of Staff near you again, Santiago Cafiero, nor to the Minister of Economy, Martin Guzman. He also reserves several reproaches for the President himself. Cristina believes that the economy and the indiscreet photo of the party in Olivos are the reasons for the defeat. They are, but not the only ones. He does not like Cafiero because it is a political creation of the President, although it has little and nothing to do with the victories and failures of the ruling party. Guzmán is too seduced by a quick agreement with the Monetary Fund, with which she wants an agreement, but not quick or easy.
The vice president pushes an immediate renewal of the cabinet so as not to repeat on November 14 the electoral role of last Sunday. “Will Kicillof’s cabinet resign?” Asks an Albertist mischievously. The governor also lost in his district. Nevertheless, Alberto Fernández knows that part of his governing team has been exhausted, but he does not believe that this is the time for great changes. What if November was nothing more than a reissue of the Sunday that happened? What margin for changes would the President have, then, when he still has two years of government ahead of him? Why wear out new figures now that you could present at the time as a new offer to society? In the background, the fear that Cristina will end up intervening the Executive Power also influences. “The enemies are ours”, graphic, ironic, a prominent member of the government who militates in the weakened Albertism.
Close to the President they assure that a radicalization of the economy will be worse. Radicalization can be rhetorical or, as one keen observer put it, “administrative radicalization.” Strict price freeze? Can be. That does not need more than the signature of the Secretary of Commerce, Paula Spanish, an euphoric Christianity. Disarm any utility rate hike program? You also need only the resolution of the management. Issue more money? Expand the installment payment plan? They will have no problems. These things do not require more than the approval of the person signing the resolution. The official impotence would be clearly seen if the Government wanted to advance in a radicalization that included the approval of Congress (expropriations, for example), because the ruling party ran out of Congress before its time. The foreign legislators he needed to reach a majority in the Chamber of Deputies fled on the night of the same Sunday. Defeat has no parents or children.
Albertism (the President is something else: he comes and goes between Cristina and his own) is sure that the administrative radicalization will end up aggravating the numbers of the defeat. The issue, to put a case, accelerates inflation and this spurs the voracity for the dollar. The country already knows the beginning and the end of that theater. He observed – and participated – lived several times since the late 1960s. This is one of the few times that Peronism must manage the penury without dollars and without a tailwind. No talent, too. It must be accepted that the wrong policies are compounded by the ineptitude to administer the basic affairs of the State. The President announced on Monday a “buy Argentina” to benefit the national industry. Go back fifty years. A remake of the national buy of the former minister Aldo ferrer in the early years of the 70s of the last century. The decision entails two contradictions, in addition to a confusion between the priorities. One: Argentina’s priority is to sell abroad to stock up on dollars, not to buy. The other: the Argentine industrial matrix needs the importation of inputs, which are paid for with dollars. The country has no dollars. How to incentivize industrial production without dollars? The answer is in an arcane without light.
Peronism dawned on Monday without certainties and without presidential candidates. Governors and mayors have already started an internal debate to get away from the old certainties and begin to coin new faces with an eye toward 2023. The doctrine of Peronism is, after all, power. Come from Menem, Néstor or Cristina Kirchner, nobody disputes power when electoral power exists. Now, they lost Cristina, Alberto Fernández, Máximo Kirchner, Axel Kicillof and Sergio Massa, seriously beaten in his old corral, Tigre. They were the figures that disputed the presidential candidacy of Peronism for two years from now. Statues destroyed, if the November results were the same as three days ago. The most severe criticism of the Peronists is against La Cámpora and its leader and creator, Máximo Kirchner. Camping has experienced its greatest moment of political splendor in the last two years. The decline that is announced could be very fast. Buenos Aires mayors recall that it was Máximo Kirchner’s pen that filled the lists of candidates for national legislators and provincial deputies and senators. Only that pen influenced and served. The only Peronist who faced him was the mayor of Esteban Echeverría, Fernando Gray, which managed to delay the landing of the powerful heir of the Kirchner family as president of the Buenos Aires Justicialist Party. Gray challenged him and brought him to justice and, although he lost, he threatens to go to court. Máximo Kirchner never found out if the people on those lists of legislators were known, if they had experience in public administration or enough knowledge to run the state. He was only interested in the loyalty of each candidate to camping. Camper is the heir to Cristina Kirchner. In November it will be necessary to ask if the heir is still alive or if he has died politically.
For now, The objective set by the Government is to reverse the results of the province of Buenos Aires and La Pampa in November, the latter because it elects national senators, above all. In 2017, Peronism lost the primaries in La Pampa and won the general elections. But the difference with the opposition was much smaller than the 10 points that separated him on Sunday from his opponents. In 2017 there was also Carlos Verna as governor. Verna is a controversial and controversial figure, but she has a much larger political stature than her successor, Sergio Ziliotto, who embraced the worst national decisions against the field in a cattle province. There is no better way to expel voters.
Buenos Aires is something else. There are industrial and rural workers, large and small businessmen, industrialists and farmers, the unemployed and the self-employed, and the highest population density of the poor in the country. “What people suffered in these two years is very serious. They hurt her in the most essential matters of any human being. So serious that it is neither forgiven nor forgotten ”, says an analyst who studies the state of society. According to all the analysts consulted, the reversal of the results will be an enormous, arduous, difficult task. Nobody imagines why ordinary people should change their opinion about the Government. Why do you distribute more money? You know they do it for electoral purposes. Why did you vaccinate? The vaccine had a positive effect for the Government in the first stages of immunization. Then, the opinion on the administration was the same between vaccinated and unvaccinated. The government must convert those who are offended into sympathizers. Possible, but unlikely.
The ruling party can only rely on eventual errors by the opposition. He has not committed them until now, although he has not made a dazzling campaign either. It was enough for the opposition to exist, to endure united, as an option to a much rejected ruling party. But it is also time for the interns to end, because the interns, which are the primaries, have already ended. The opposition is not competing against a party or a coalition; its competition is with the State in the hands of Kirchnerism. It’s not little. Gerardo Morales placeholder image he should be more concerned with his opponents than with his allies. The governor of Jujuy is the loose verse of Together for Change. If he continues like this, criticizing his partners more than his adversaries, the version that he is more a friend of Peronism than of the opposition to it will be confirmed. Morales won in his province as many others won. It is a merit, not a feat.